At 8:30 a.m. Eastern on a Sunday so peaceful, one could almost hear the sigh of relief from Bitcoin, sitting pretty at $110,300, traders in their cryptic lairs fervently casting their bets: will this digital titan hold its ground or, heaven forbid, shoot for the stars as it rolls through November?
Polymarket’s November Wager
The well-known and ever-enthusiastic prediction platform Polymarket is hosting a thrilling contest titled “What price will Bitcoin hit in November?” where traders have already bet more than $1.2 million on what this enigmatic coin will do.
The overwhelming favorite: a 77% chance that Bitcoin remains above $115,000, with “Yes” shares trading at a modest 77¢. This prediction soared 5 percentage points overnight, as though Bitcoin had become everyone’s best friend. Traders are practically high-fiving each other, confident that the king of cryptos will not falter.
In the middle of the pack, traders are betting a 29% chance that Bitcoin will break through $125,000, up 4%. The odds of breaching $130,000 are much slimmer at 14%. There’s also a modest 7% chance that it reaches $135,000, and a mere 4% for a move beyond $140,000. And as for the moonshot bets-Bitcoin at $200,000 this month? Please-those have a laughable 1% chance, with a paltry $482,800 in total volume. But hey, who doesn’t love a good underdog story?
As for the bears? Well, they’re looking pretty sad. A 34% chance that Bitcoin will dip below $100,000 is the most exciting thing they’ve got, and beyond that? Forget about it. Odds of dropping below $95,000 stand at a weak 15%, and a drop below $90,000 is almost nonexistent, hovering at a puny 10%. Anything below $80,000 is virtually a fantasy at 3% or less.
Polymarket traders are betting on Bitcoin’s resilience, not its demise. Shocking, isn’t it?
Kalshi’s Year-End Forecasts
Meanwhile, over on Kalshi, the U.S. prediction exchange, traders are casting their long-term spells for the end of 2025. The market is named “How low will Bitcoin get this year?”, where a whopping $5.76 million is on the line. This is one of Kalshi’s hottest crypto markets-so hot, in fact, it might just burn your fingers.
Here, the forecast centers on a median price of $101,000. And for those of you praying for a collapse, don’t get too excited-there’s only a 47% chance that Bitcoin falls below $100,000, a slight dip from last week. A deeper drop? Not likely: Only 20% chance below $90,000, and just 13% for anything below $80,000. For those waiting for Bitcoin to fall below $70,000, you’ve got a 6% shot. Anything under $60,000 or $50,000? Well, they are so rare, you’d have a better chance of spotting a unicorn on Wall Street. 🦄
In essence, Kalshi traders are convinced that Bitcoin has found a comfy floor near six figures. Both bulls and bears seem to agree that we’re unlikely to see any deep dives below $100,000-so much for the apocalypse!
Between Polymarket’s enthusiasm for the short-term and Kalshi’s laid-back long-term view, traders seem confident that Bitcoin won’t return to the depths of despair any time soon. A volatile November is expected, but the most likely range? Between $105,000 and $125,000, where Bitcoin is likely to dance for the next few weeks like a well-mannered guest at a party.
The current data suggests that traders are not hoping for meteoric highs. No, no. They’re betting on sustained strength. “How long can it stay this strong?” they ask, as if Bitcoin is some kind of Olympian athlete flexing in front of a packed stadium. 💪
FAQ
What are Polymarket traders predicting for bitcoin in November?
They’re giving bitcoin a 77% chance of staying above $115,000, with heavy volume backing that outcome. 🍾
How much money is being wagered on Polymarket’s bitcoin market?
More than $1.2 million in total volume is spread across all November price outcomes. That’s a lot of confidence-or perhaps a lot of bravado. 🤔
What’s the forecast on Kalshi for bitcoin’s year-end low?
Kalshi traders peg a $101,000 forecast with only a 47% chance BTC dips under $100,000.
Is bitcoin expected to drop below $90,000 this year?
Kalshi traders assign just a 20% probability that bitcoin will fall under $90,000 before year-end. 🙃
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2025-11-02 18:10