Prediction: Boeing Won the F-47 Contract — and Maybe F/A-XX as Well

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The news struck defense stock investors like a missile from a clear blue sky:

In March 2025, the U.S. Air Force disclosed that a new sixth-generation fighter aircraft, marking their first ever, will not be constructed by Lockheed Martin, the globally recognized defense contractor renowned for building America’s previous two fifth-generation jets (the stealthy F-22 and F-35). Instead, another company has been selected.

Instead, the contract for constructing the sixth-generation F-47 stealth fighter was awarded to Boeing, a move that could potentially yield revenues ranging from $20 billion to $50 billion during its development and hundreds of billions more upon manufacturing it.

As it turns out, the F-47 contract might just be a much more significant opportunity for Boeing than initially anticipated – and I can’t help but feel excited about it!

F-47, F/A-XX-zero

Towards the end of last month, according to Defense Scoop, the Pentagon requested $3.5 billion from Congress for ongoing development of the Boeing F-47. In stark contrast, the Pentagon asked for a mere $74 million in funding for research and development related to its own sixth-generation fighter-bomber project, which is currently referred to as the F/A-XX. A senior Defense Department official elaborated that the Pentagon chose to prioritize the F-47, stating they made a “strategic decision to fully commit resources to the F-47.” Unfortunately, this means the F/A-XX has been temporarily shelved because “the current industrial capabilities can only manage high-speed progress on one project at present.

That’s a curious explanation.

Given the massive prize of around 47 billion dollars at stake in the F-47 competition, it’s highly likely that Boeing and Lockheed were putting maximum effort into creating rival prototypes to win this contest until the winner was declared in March. Since Boeing has won the F-47 contract, I think Lockheed would have been eager to invest fully, adjust their strategy, and aim for victory in the other sixth-generation competition, the F/A-XX.

It seems that the Pentagon might have been trying to convey that their budget for Research and Development within the Defense Department is constrained, meaning there isn’t enough money to simultaneously fund the development of both planes, such as the F-47 and the F/A-XX. This explanation could provide a clearer rationale behind the $3.5 billion allocated for the F-47’s development next year compared to the F/A-XX not receiving funding at this time.

A second bite at the F/A-XX apple?

Simultaneously, it was revealed only a week ago that the U.S. Navy has not completely disregarded the F/A-XX project.

According to Breaking Defense’s latest report, the Navy has compiled an “Unfunded Priorities List” for fiscal year 2026, which can be thought of as a military wish list for additional resources. Notably, the Navy is hoping that, if by chance there is an extra $1.4 billion available in Congress’ budget, they would prefer to use it for the ongoing development of the F/A-XX aircraft project.

The additional funding, according to the Navy, “enables us to award the contract for the 6th Generation Strike Fighter [F/A-XX] to one of the two remaining bidders: Boeing or Northrop Grumman (NOC). These are the only companies left in contention for this contract, which has been under review for over a decade.

Should Boeing and Northrop Grumman be the sole remaining competitors for the F/A-XX project, it might not significantly aid Lockheed Martin. However, it could potentially prove advantageous twice over for Boeing.

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Two for the price of one

In an unexpected turn of events, Axios shared recently about a potential scenario where the Pentagon finances just one sixth-generation jet, while delaying or halting development on another. According to the news agency, budget constraints for developing multiple aircraft, alongside the pressing need for new planes for both the Air Force and Navy, could lead to the F/A-XX and F-47 projects being combined.

Instead, it’s possible that the Navy might opt for a customized F-47 model over an entirely new F/A-XX design from another company, much like how the F-35 program produced different versions such as the F-35A for the Air Force, F-35B for the USMC, and F-35C for the Navy.

In essence, this strategic decision would tackle two issues at once. Given the progress made on the F-47 (Boeing has been working on it since 2019), $3.5 billion in additional funding seems adequate to complete the project. Subsequently, the technology and knowledge gained from developing the F-47 can be utilized and adapted to construct a naval variant of this aircraft – designed for takeoff and landing on aircraft carriers.

Presto-change-o, the F-47 might spawn an F/A-47 variant suitable for the Navy.

Will the scenario unfold as described? Only future events can confirm this. However, according to Axios’ report, such a development could bring a double advantage for Boeing – securing two contracts following successful competition for just one – while posing potential challenges for Lockheed Martin’s stock price.

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2025-07-20 10:47