The pharmaceutical giant Pfizer (PFE) once commanded headlines for developing a pandemic vaccine at unprecedented speed. That achievement now feels like ancient history. The company’s shares, which soared during the crisis, have since collapsed from $60 to $24. Investors who bought the narrative of perpetual growth now face an uncomfortable truth: empires built on temporary demand crumble when the world moves on.
Collapse of a Pandemic Darling
The retreat from pandemic-era valuations exposed vulnerabilities. Demand for Pfizer’s vaccines waned as the virus mutated into a manageable threat. Worse, key revenue drivers like Eliquis and Ibrance approach patent expiration, threatening billions in annual losses. The market’s verdict is clear: Pfizer’s past triumphs no longer justify its present price.
A New Frontier: Obesity
The company’s acquisition of Metsera-a $4.9 billion bet on experimental obesity drugs-signals desperation or reinvention, depending on perspective. Metsera’s lead candidate, MET-233i, promises weight loss of 8.4% in 36 days with less frequent dosing. Yet this “innovation” enters a market already dominated by Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy and Eli Lilly’s Zepbound, which raked in $9.9 billion and $4.9 billion respectively last year.
Valuation vs. Hype
Pfizer trades at 7.7 times forward earnings-a stark discount to Novo Nordisk’s 14.5 and Lilly’s 25. This gap reflects skepticism, not irrationality. Metsera’s drugs remain unproven at scale, while competitors have spent years building distribution networks and physician trust. The obesity epidemic grows, but Pfizer arrives late, armed only with a speculative pipeline.
Value investors seek margins of safety, not fairy tales. Pfizer’s low multiple compensates for risks, but offers no guarantee. An investment here is a wager on management’s ability to execute in a brutally competitive arena. Those who buy today should do so with eyes open to the odds-and a healthy dose of skepticism.
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2025-09-25 17:08