Dear Diary,
Today, I find myself staring at my Peloton Interactive (PTON) stock chart like it’s the last slice of cake in the fridge—tempting but slightly guilt-inducing. Shares soared 14.6% by mid-morning after some analyst over at UBS decided to upgrade it to a “buy.” An $11 price target? That’s practically double where the stock closed yesterday. Either this is genius-level investing or we’re all about to fall off a very expensive stationary bike.
Why UBS Loves Peloton So Much It Hurts
According to UBS, Peloton is trimming costs while growing revenue, which sounds suspiciously like when I try to cut back on takeaway coffee only to reward myself with an artisanal oat milk latte later. They seem confident that fiscal 2026 profits will pleasantly surprise us all, predicting EBITDA could hit $400 million—or even $450 million. A potential 25% earnings surprise? If true, that would be impressive enough to make me forget how many times I’ve sworn off speculative stocks.
But let’s not kid ourselves. EBITDA isn’t actual cash rolling into anyone’s bank account. It’s more like calories burned during a spin class—you feel virtuous, but your jeans still don’t fit quite right.
Is Peloton Stock Worth Buying? Or Am I Just Sweating Equity Again?
I’ll admit, there are reasons to be cautiously optimistic. Peloton has started generating positive free cash flow again, and most analysts agree it will stay that way for the foreseeable future. At 11.5 times current year FCF, based on an estimated $245 million profit, the valuation does seem… reasonable. And yes, there’s $1.1 billion in net debt hanging over them like a poorly timed mortgage, but hey, no one ever got rich without taking a few risks.
And yet, here I am, oscillating between visions of financial independence and flashbacks to every other time I convinced myself something was a sure thing. Units of Patience Left: 3. Hours Spent Overthinking This Decision: 4. Number of Times I’ve Refreshed My Brokerage App Today: Too Many.
Still, if UBS is correct and Peloton can grow as predicted, then maybe—just maybe—this could work out. Maybe I won’t end up crying into my spreadsheets next quarter. Maybe I’ll actually have something to brag about at dinner parties instead of pretending to understand NFTs.
So, is Peloton stock a buy? Honestly, I think so. But then again, I also thought keeping kale chips in the house would stop me from eating chocolate digestives. 😊
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2025-07-30 20:33