Palantir vs. BigBear.ai: A Comedy of Errors (and Earnings)

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Alright, settle in, folks! We’re diving into the thrilling world of AI stocks. It’s more exciting than watching paint dry, I assure you. Today’s matchup: Palantir Technologies and BigBear.ai. Now, BigBear.ai… a perfectly respectable name. Sounds like a guy who wrestles grizzlies. But let’s be honest, in the AI arena, it’s starting to look less like a grizzly and more like a… well, a slightly confused hamster. They’ve been trying to follow Palantir’s playbook – a bit like a mime trying to imitate a rock concert. Ambitious, yes. Effective? We’ll see.

Palantir, now they know how to put on a show. Started by supplying the spooks and the Pentagon – very James Bond, very sophisticated. Now they’re selling to everyone, even accountants! Can you imagine? They’ve gone from tracking terrorists to tracking… tax deductions. The stock price has, shall we say, exploded. It’s gone up so much, I’m half expecting Jeff Bezos to offer them a ride to space.

BigBear.ai has had a decent run, up 142% over three years. Not bad, if you’re selling slightly used socks. But compared to Palantir? It’s like bringing a slingshot to a laser battle. The market noticed. And, frankly, so did Wall Street. They lowered expectations for BigBear.ai, which is a polite way of saying, “Uh, maybe try harder?”

The Commercial Segment: Where Palantir is Counting its Gold

Palantir realized early on that governments, while reliable, don’t exactly throw money around like confetti. So, they went after the corporate crowd. And guess what? It worked! Their commercial revenue spiked 73% year over year – that’s like discovering a hidden stash of doubloons! They’re signing deals left and right, and the average deal size is getting bigger. They’re practically building a fortress of cash! They’ve added 742 commercial customers, which is a lot of people trusting them with their data. It’s like a digital popularity contest, and Palantir is winning.

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And these aren’t just any customers. They’re expanding their use of Palantir’s AI platform, which means more revenue. It’s a beautiful cycle. They signed 204 deals worth over a million dollars, and even better, deals worth over ten million dollars jumped. It’s like they’re printing money! Their earnings jumped 110% in the last quarter. Honestly, it’s almost unfair.

BigBear.ai? They’re still mostly reliant on government contracts. Which is fine, if you’re building a military base. But in the cutthroat world of AI, it’s like bringing a horse-drawn carriage to a Formula One race. It’s a bit… limiting.

BigBear.ai: A Cheap Stock for a Reason

Let’s be blunt: BigBear.ai’s stock took a tumble when they missed expectations. They lowered their guidance for the year, which is a fancy way of saying, “Oops, we messed up.” Their revenue is expected to decline next year. Decline! In the AI business, that’s like a comedian forgetting his jokes.

The problem? They’re too dependent on Uncle Sam. Government budgets change, contracts get delayed… it’s a recipe for volatility. Palantir, on the other hand, has diversified. They’re not putting all their eggs in one basket – or, in this case, one government agency.

Analysts predict the AI software platform market will grow from $26 billion to $88 billion in the next decade. That’s a lot of money! Palantir is growing faster than the market, grabbing market share. BigBear.ai? They’re losing ground. It’s like watching a slow-motion train wreck. Even though BigBear.ai trades at a lower multiple than Palantir, it’s a cheap stock for a reason.

Palantir’s valuation might seem high, but it’s justified. They’re poised to become a major player in the AI market, and that could translate into healthy gains for shareholders. So, if you’re looking for an AI stock with potential, skip the hamster and go with the grizzly. You’ll thank me later. And if you don’t? Well, I’ll be too busy counting my profits to notice.

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2026-02-01 06:33