Palantir Stock Soared 100% in 2025 to Hit a Record High in July. History Says This Will Happen Next.

As of July 17, Palantir Technologies’ (PLTR) stock experienced a significant surge, soaring over 100% year-to-date and hitting a fresh peak of $154 per share. This monumental rise has boosted its total return to an astounding 1,680% since the debut of ChatGPT in November 2022, an AI application that has gained widespread recognition for pioneering generative artificial intelligence technology.

Here’s what investors should know about Palantir and what history says the stock will do next.

Palantir has a unique ability to help customers operationalize artificial intelligence

Palantir creates data analytics systems designed to simplify intricate data for businesses. According to the company, what sets them apart is their software structure based on ontologies. Ontologies are like frameworks connecting digital information with real-world items, enabling the discovery of cause-and-effect relationships that enhance decision-making processes.

Palantir’s artificial intelligence platform (AIP) strengthens its primary data management systems by incorporating capabilities for big language models and natural language processing. Essentially, AIP allows users to utilize generative AI in their day-to-day tasks. The company asserts that this product offers a distinctive advantage to customers, enabling them to efficiently transition AI prototypes into practical applications, which is more effective compared to other available solutions.

Multiple financial experts have voiced similar views. Notably, Forrester Research has placed Palantir at the forefront in the realm of artificial intelligence and machine learning platforms. In fact, they’ve given Palantir’s AIP a higher rating than offerings from Google (owned by Alphabet) and Microsoft. Analyst Mike Gualtieri penned that Palantir is subtly making its way to becoming a significant force in this sector.

In the first quarter, Palantir announced robust financial figures. The revenue increased by 39% to reach a total of $884 million, marking the seventh consecutive increase at an accelerated pace. This significant growth was largely attributed to a surge in sales within the government sector. Additionally, non-GAAP earnings grew by 62% to hit $0.13 per share. The company’s management attributed their strong results to high demand for their artificial intelligence platform.

In the future, analysts predict that the company’s revenue will rise by approximately 38% to reach $939 million, and non-GAAP earnings per diluted share will increase by around 33% to $0.12. However, Mizuho analysts, headed by Gregg Moskowitz, believe that Palantir has a strong possibility of boosting revenue growth even more rapidly.

History says Palantir stock could eventually decline more than 80%

Currently, Palantir’s stock is trading at a price that is significantly higher compared to other companies in the S&P 500, with approximately 123 times its sales. This makes it the most costly stock among all, leaving Texas Pacific Land as the second most expensive at around 31 times sales. In other words, even if Palantir’s share price dropped by 74%, it would still hold the title of the most expensive stock within the S&P 500 index.

In addition, only a small number of firms have managed to reach such a high valuation in the past twenty years. Upon examining over fifty software stocks, I discovered merely half a dozen others that surpassed a valuation of 100 times their sales during this timeframe. Notably, each one of these experienced a significant decline, as further explained below:

Snowflake traded at 183 times sales in December 2020. The stock eventually fell 72%.
Zoom Communications traded at 124 times sales in October 2020. The stock eventually fell 90%.
Cloudflare traded at 114 times sales in November 2021. The stock eventually fell 83%.
SoundHound AI traded at 111 times sales in December 2024. The stock eventually fell 70%.
SentinelOne traded at 106 times sales in September 2021. The stock eventually fell 82%.
Bill Holdings traded at 103 times sales in September 2021. That stock eventually fell 87%.

In summary, just six software companies (excluding Palantir) managed to reach valuations more than 100 times their sales over the past twenty years. Later on, these stocks experienced a significant drop, averaging around 81%. Interestingly, none of these six companies have reached a new peak since then, and they are still experiencing an average decline of approximately 58% as of today.

In simple terms, reaching a peak valuation of $154 per share at 123 times sales on July 17, 2025, suggests that Palantir’s stock might decrease by around 81% to approximately $30 per share if its performance follows the historical norm.

To clarify, previous stock prices for Palantir don’t automatically predict a drop in future values. However, it’s important to note that the stock currently appears costly, which implies the potential risks might outweigh the rewards if the price were to decrease further.

It might be wise for investors to consider waiting for a more favorable price instead of purchasing Palantir right now.

2025-07-23 11:34

Palantir has a unique ability to help customers operationalize artificial intelligence

History says Palantir stock could eventually decline more than 80%

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