Palantir: Or, How Not to Lose Money on Shadows

Palantir Technologies. The name itself suggests something out of a forgotten myth, doesn’t it? A place where secrets are forged, and data… well, data is mostly just numbers until someone starts believing in them. For some time, the stock has been a battleground, a place where the bears sharpen their claws, convinced it’s all smoke and mirrors, while the bulls bellow about growth rates that defy the usual laws of financial physics. The truth, as is so often the case, is likely somewhere in between, possibly involving a small dragon and a surprisingly accurate abacus.

Expectations, naturally, were high. The quarterly earnings report arrived with the weight of a thousand spreadsheets, and everyone – the soothsayers of Wall Street, the oracles of CNBC – had staked out their positions. What emerged wasn’t merely a set of numbers, but a demonstration that the adoption of Artificial Intelligence – or, as the more superstitious call it, the awakening of the silicon gods – has a rather long runway indeed. A very long runway. Possibly leading to another dimension. We’re looking into it.

Blockbuster Results (and Possibly a Small Miracle)

Investors anticipated much, and Palantir delivered… rather more. Revenue clocked in at $1.40 billion, a 70% year-over-year jump and a respectable 19% quarter-over-quarter increase. Adjusted earnings per share soared 79% to $0.25. These numbers aren’t just good; they’re the sort of numbers that make accountants question their life choices. Analysts, those ever-optimistic scribes, predicted $1.34 billion in revenue and $0.23 EPS. Palantir didn’t just clear the hurdles; it vaulted over them on a unicorn.¹

The star of the show, predictably, was the U.S. commercial segment, home to the flagship Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP). Revenue accelerated yet again, surging 137% to $507 million, and climbing 28% sequentially. This now accounts for 36% of total revenue, which is rather like discovering that your slightly eccentric uncle is actually the King of Somewhere.

Total contract value (TCV) hit a record $4.26 billion, up 138% year over year. The U.S. commercial segment also turned in a record performance, with TCV of $1.34 billion, up 67%. These aren’t just contracts; they’re promises, binding agreements forged in the fires of data analysis. And possibly a bit of legal jargon.

Perhaps even more impressive is Palantir’s visibility into its future business. The U.S. commercial segment’s remaining deal value (RDV) – the value of agreements yet to be fulfilled – surged 145% year over year and 21% sequentially to $4.38 billion. This isn’t just optimism; it’s a carefully constructed foundation for future growth, built on the backs of algorithms and the unwavering belief that someone, somewhere, will eventually pay the bill.

Other metrics are equally bullish. The Rule of 40 score climbed to 127%, which, in the arcane language of finance, means the company is doing rather well. Palantir also delivered operating cash flow of $777 million (a margin of 55%) and adjusted free cash flow of $791 million (a margin of 56%). This is not merely good news for Palantir investors; it’s a quiet rebuke to anyone who predicted its demise.

CEO Alex Karp, a man who clearly understands the power of both data and carefully chosen words, declared that the financial results “have again exceeded even our most ambitious expectations.” Management expects this trend to continue. After generating full-year revenue growth of 56% in 2025, Palantir announced a forecast of at least 61% revenue growth in 2026. This isn’t just a forecast; it’s a challenge, a gauntlet thrown down before the skeptics.

At 105 times next year’s expected earnings, the stock is, admittedly, expensive. But this marks the 10th consecutive quarter of accelerating revenue growth, with no signs of a slowdown in sight. I predicted that Palantir would surprise everyone, and, for once, I wasn’t wrong. A rare and satisfying experience.

While the growth story is undeniably intact, it will come with significant volatility. For investors still interested, buying a small position in the riskier part of your portfolio wouldn’t go amiss. Dollar-cost averaging is another way to ride this comet higher. Just remember to buckle up. And possibly invest in a good helmet.

¹ Unicorns, in this context, are not mythical creatures, but rather companies valued at over $1 billion. The connection to actual horned equines remains, however, a subject of ongoing debate among financial analysts.

2026-02-03 01:22

Blockbuster Results (and Possibly a Small Miracle)

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