Palantir: Five Years in the Smoke

Palantir. The name itself sounded like something out of a dusty myth, a place where secrets were forged. They went public back in 2020, a direct listing – no fanfare, just a quiet entry into the market. Started at ten bucks. Now it’s flirting with a hundred and fifty. They even got themselves a seat at the S&P 500 table in ’24. A stampede, they called it. Bulls charging at anything that smelled like AI. But momentum’s a fickle friend. The question isn’t whether it was moving, but whether it can keep the pace.

The Two Sides of the Street

Palantir runs a two-track operation. Gotham, for the government crowd. Foundry, for the suits with the big wallets. Both platforms are data aggregators, sifting through the noise to find patterns. Gotham keeps the agencies happy, planning and plotting. Foundry lets companies like Apple and Walmart figure out what their customers actually want, or at least what they’re buying. It’s a neat trick, if you can pull it off.

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From 2020 to 2024, they grew revenue at a 27% clip. Turned a profit in ’23, doubled it in ’24. Gotham got a boost from all the trouble brewing around the globe – unrest and conflict are good for business, apparently. Foundry expanded as corporations realized they were drowning in data and needed someone to bail them out. Analysts are predicting a 45% revenue jump and an 84% EPS surge over the next three years. Optimistic, maybe. But in this market, optimism is a currency.

The AI boom is fueling the fire, spreading across government and industry. Their “Rule of 40” – revenue growth plus operating margin – is hitting triple digits. Sounds impressive, until you remember it’s just a number. And Palantir is already trading at 186 times forward earnings. A lot of that growth is already priced in, baked into the cake. It’s a high-flying act, and gravity is always waiting in the wings.

Five Years Down the Line

If they hit those analyst targets, keep growing EPS at 40% a year through 2031, and the market decides to be reasonable – say, 50 times forward earnings – then the stock could climb to around $225. That’s a 50% jump. Not bad. But it won’t be the kind of explosion they’ve seen over the last five years. The easy money’s been made.

It might outperform the S&P 500’s average of 10%, but that’s a low bar. This is a volatile stock, still trying to justify its premium valuation. It needs to grow into its skin. The market doesn’t reward potential forever. It demands results. And in this game, promises are as good as dust.

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2026-01-30 21:12