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The pronouncements are bold, the figures astronomical. Some speak of trillions—twenty, even twenty-five—as if such sums are not built upon the labor and dreams of countless souls, but merely conjured by the whim of the market. Beth Kindig, an analyst of I/O Fund, posits a future valuation for Nvidia of twenty trillion dollars by the year 2030. A substantial increase, to be sure—a threefold expansion of its current worth. And Elon Musk, a man accustomed to bending reality to his will, declares Tesla capable of reaching twenty-five trillion. Such pronouncements, while perhaps intended to inspire confidence, carry with them a certain hubris, a disregard for the inherent uncertainties of fate.

Analysts at J.P. Morgan estimate capital expenditures for supporting AI data centers will exceed $1.4 trillion annually by 2030. Such figures demand scrutiny. They represent not simply investment, but a concentration of capital that warrants careful consideration of its distribution and ultimate purpose.

And that’s where Intuitive Machines (LUNR 2.86%) comes in. They aren’t building rockets, precisely. Think of them as the logistics firm for lunar ambitions. A sort of United Parcel Service, but for rocks and scientific instruments. NASA, it turns out, outsources quite a bit these days. In 2024, Intuitive Machines was right up there with the big boys – Northrop Grumman (NOC +0.37%) and Lockheed Martin (LMT 0.52%) – as a key partner in the Artemis program. Which, when you think about it, is rather extraordinary for a company you’ve probably never heard of.

The recent surge, a three-year average of 62%, is, of course, a statistical anomaly. Or is it? One begins to suspect a hidden mechanism, a complex interplay of factors defying simple explanation. Those who have entrusted their capital to this floating enterprise for the past five years are, presumably, experiencing a degree of satisfaction. But the question, as always, is whether this state of affairs will persist. To assume continuity is to invite a reckoning with the inherent instability of all systems, particularly those predicated on leisure and discretionary spending.

The illusion of permanence, of course, is a comforting one. We cling to the notion that a dollar today will still buy a loaf of bread tomorrow, even as the very foundations of that dollar erode with each keystroke and algorithm. Thus, the emergence of these ‘stablecoins’ – USD Coin and PayPal USD – isn’t so much an innovation as a desperate attempt to hold onto that illusion, to bind the ephemeral world of digital finance to the cold, hard reality of the U.S. dollar. Hold one for a year, they promise, and you’ll still have one dollar. But the silence surrounding what that dollar means is a vast and echoing space.

The valuation, you see, hangs suspended, a delicate frost flower on the branch of optimism. It requires a sustained blossoming, a relentless surge of revenue, to justify its present height. Should the company’s guidance fall short of the breathless whispers, a chill wind will surely descend, and the frost will shatter.

The tables, the numbers… they are not data, but bureaucratic pronouncements. A ritualistic accounting of what is, and what might be, lost. Observe the expense ratios: SPGM at 0.09%, ACWX at 0.32%. A seemingly negligible difference, yet it represents a small levy, a toll exacted for the privilege of participating. The one-year returns—20.62% for SPGM, 31.86% for ACWX—are presented as evidence of success, but they are merely fleeting indicators, susceptible to the whims of forces beyond our comprehension. The dividend yields—1.83% and 2.7%, respectively—are offered as sustenance, a meager offering to appease the anxious investor.

Investing, of course, is rarely about logic, but rather about the exquisitely timed embrace of the improbable. And so, before one succumbs to the siren song of this particular speculation, a moment of clarity is advisable. Let us examine, with a detached amusement, the three principal illusions upon which this venture rests.