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The firm found itself adrift in the process race, a contest not of speed, but of infinitesimal dimensions. TSMC, a name whispered with increasing reverence in the halls of technological power, seized the advantage. And AMD, a cunning strategist, leveraged the capabilities of its rival’s competitor, expanding its reach like a fractal pattern. Four chief executives, each attempting to decipher the correct path through this silicon labyrinth, have come and gone, their strategies shifting like the sands of a forgotten desert. It is a testament to the inherent unknowability of the future, or perhaps, to the futility of attempting to impose order upon chaos.

For the uninitiated, AGNC occupies itself with the acquisition of agency mortgage-backed securities – a realm of financial instruments guaranteed, at least in theory, by the weight of governmental backing. Default, one might assume, is a specter rarely glimpsed. Yet, the tides of interest rates and the subtle shifts in mortgage spreads exert a considerable influence, shaping the fortunes of AGNC like the prevailing winds upon a fragile vessel.

It’s the why that always gets me. Rebalancing? Sure. That’s what we tell the clients. A tidy, logical explanation. But I’ve been doing this long enough to know that sometimes these things are less about optimization and more about someone in a corner office having a bad feeling. A premonition. Or maybe they just really dislike municipal bonds. Who am I to judge?

Since Buffett announced his exit last May, Berkshire’s underperformed the S&P by a rather embarrassing 32 percentage points. Thirty-two! It’s enough to make you question everything, isn’t it? Like maybe we all got a bit carried away with the Buffett premium. The idea that a single person – however brilliant – could magically inflate a company’s value. Turns out, people do matter. Who knew?

You don’t need to stumble upon the next Amazon, either. The truly remarkable thing is that a perfectly respectable, utterly unglamorous exchange-traded fund – the Vanguard Growth ETF (VUG 0.92%) – has demonstrated a capacity to do the heavy lifting. It’s not a name that rolls off the tongue, but then neither does ‘hypotenuse,’ and yet, that’s a useful thing to know.

So, which one’s the better buy? That’s what we’re here to figure out. And believe me, I’ve seen more market predictions than I’ve had hot dinners, and that’s saying something. Let’s just say my crystal ball is slightly cracked.

The latest offering – a partnership with Lightspark to facilitate cross-border payments using Bitcoin – is presented as a breakthrough. One suspects it is merely a particularly elaborate means of shifting funds from one account to another, dressed up in the finery of ‘disruptive technology’.

But there’s this other company. A big one. You probably order things from it. Amazon. Wall Street seems to think it’ll do alright. A “buy” or “strong buy,” they say. A 21% bump in the stock price over the next year? That’s just a number, of course. But numbers do tend to accumulate.