The figures, of course, tell a different story. China, it seems, holds most of the cards. Fifty-nine percent of the mining, ninety-one percent of the refining… it’s a comfortable dominance. We’ve grown accustomed to such arrangements, haven’t we? A quiet dependence, easily overlooked until the music stops. And then, the scrambling begins. It’s always the same.
They’re poking around in advertising now, and games. Advertising, a necessary evil, like taxes and death. Last year, ad revenue doubled. Games… well, that’s the curious part. They’re not trying to become a gaming company. Just dipping a toe in a $140 billion puddle. Excluding China, of course. Everything excludes China, eventually.
Now, McKinsey—those folks who get paid to predict things—say 2030 is the year. Robotaxis everywhere! Level 4 or Level 5 autonomy, they call it. Sounds impressive, doesn’t it? Like a secret agent code. Level 5 means no driver ever. Just a car, a destination, and a prayer. Frankly, I’m sticking with human drivers until I see one successfully parallel park in Manhattan. But enough about my personal anxieties.
Apparently, BlackRock just decided to increase its stake. Which, fine. They’re a big firm, they do what they do. But it’s the why that bothers me. They filed a 13G. A 13G! It’s like saying, “Hey, we own a chunk of this thing, but don’t expect us to actually do anything about it.” It’s the financial equivalent of a shrug. They’re not trying to influence anything. They just… bought more shares. It’s passive. Completely passive. Like watching paint dry, but with slightly more risk.
The stock has, it is true, performed admirably, ascending a rather dizzying 387% over the past three years (as of January 30th). This, however, is precisely the sort of performance that should induce caution, not a giddy rush for the bandwagon. The narrative, as always, is ruled by sentiment, and sentiment is a notoriously unreliable guide.
Enter Eaton. Not a name that trips lightly off the tongue, perhaps, but a company that’s quietly positioning itself as the… well, let’s call them the ‘electrical plumbers’ of the AI revolution. They’re not building the brains, they’re ensuring the brains don’t fry.1 They’ve been subtly shifting their portfolio, realizing that the future isn’t about making slightly better toasters, but about keeping the digital gods from throwing a tantrum. And right now, the digital gods are hungry for power.
Microsoft, bless their heart, has been chasin’ after the ghost of software for longer than I care to remember. They build the operating system, then leave it to others to furnish the parlor. Apple, though, she builds the whole house, right down to the doorknob. And it’s no wonder, then, that they’ve been a bit slow gettin’ into this newfangled “artificial intelligence” racket. They were busy makin’ things that worked, while others were dreamin’ of machines that could think.
They say a man knows when the wind will change. Buffett always spoke of holding periods stretching toward forever, but a farmer doesn’t ignore a darkening sky. For three years, even as the market climbed, he’s been quietly drawing in his sails, selling pieces of the holdings. Not a panicked retreat, but a careful reckoning. He’s been trading stocks for cash, and in the last quarter, he’s been piling that cash high, like cordwood against a winter that feels long coming.
One might assume a company so humbled would be groveling. Not Nio. It operates, remarkably, shielded from many of the tariffs and trade skirmishes that plague its American counterparts. A fortunate circumstance, akin to a cunning gambler finding a crooked table. And, against the odds, sales are…brisk. Let us, with a skeptical eye and a knowing smile, examine whether this is a genuine recovery or merely a particularly elaborate mirage.
Yet, amidst this general agitation, one company appears to possess a degree of stability and promise that merits a closer inspection. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, or TSMC as it is commonly known, is not merely swept along by the prevailing currents, but rather appears to be a source of strength in itself. It is a consideration, therefore, to which a prudent investor might well give heed.