Pharmaceuticals & The Implausibility of Value

Eli Lilly, to its credit, was quick off the mark with Mounjaro and Zepbound, which have proven remarkably effective at… well, reducing appetite. They now account for a rather alarming 56% of the company’s revenue. Which is, statistically speaking, a lot. (Imagine building an entire financial empire on the premise that people want to eat less. It’s a bold strategy, Cotton, let’s see if it pays off.) The market, however, seems to believe this is not merely a temporary trend, but a permanent reshaping of the human condition. Hence the rather enthusiastic price-to-earnings ratio of 44 and a dividend yield that wouldn’t trouble a particularly frugal ant. It’s priced for perfection, which, as any seasoned trader knows, is a dangerous place to be. (Perfection, much like a perfectly brewed cup of tea, is an elusive and ultimately unattainable goal. Striving for it only leads to disappointment and lukewarm beverages.)







