Micron: A Memory Worth Watching

Let’s look under the hood. See if there’s anything real in there, or just polished chrome.

Let’s look under the hood. See if there’s anything real in there, or just polished chrome.

The price? Twenty-five bucks a share, according to the SEC. Closed at twenty-four-oh-five the same day. A small dip, but dips can be deceptive. It’s the pattern you look for, not the single drop.

One observes, with a certain detached amusement, the prevailing obsession with fleeting trends and ephemeral fortunes. While speculators chase shadows, a more enduring prosperity lies in understanding the fundamental needs of society. And few needs are more fundamental than the reliable delivery of energy. Let us, therefore, turn our attention to three such trusts, each a microcosm of the larger forces at play.

But a fella can’t entirely ignore opportunity, even when it smells a bit like snake oil. Most of the wise men on Wall Street – and there are a few, hidden amongst the rogues – reckon the sell-off has been a bit overdone. They see a couple of prospects worth a closer look. So, I’ve been doing my own poking around, and here’s what I’ve found, presented as a friendly wager, if you will.

The pronouncements of its chief executive, Hock Tan, should not be dismissed as mere corporate rhetoric. They are, rather, a stark accounting of a shifting landscape, a reckoning in the realm of silicon. Let us consider what has been declared.

Now, whispers circulate of a “turnaround.” The company proffers evidence – quarterly reports adorned with numbers that, while still deeply in the red, are less red than before. Investors, ever susceptible to the siren song of potential, are urged to consider: is this the moment to cast their lot with a venture that has, for so long, demonstrated a remarkable talent for converting investment into dissipation?

The stock, a volatile beast, has indeed performed a curious dance. A surge, a peak, then a… settling. Like a samovar cooling after a particularly lively evening. Concerns, naturally, have arisen. One cannot simply conjure capacity from thin air, you understand. And the markets, those fickle judges, are ever watchful. Let us, then, consider the matter with a trader’s eye, and perhaps a touch of… observation.

Goldman Sachs, in its detached pronouncements, predicts 25% of global automotive sales will be electric by 2030. A prediction. As if the future were a ledger to be balanced, rather than a tempestuous sea of human folly. Let us examine these contenders, then, not as investment opportunities, but as case studies in the art of self-deception.

The immediate driver, as is so often the case, is demand. Specifically, demand from those enormous, power-hungry data centers that seem to be multiplying faster than rabbits. Bloom offers a rather clever alternative to simply plugging into the grid, which, let’s face it, is often stretched to its limit and becoming increasingly expensive. They provide on-site fuel cells – essentially miniature power stations – that sidestep the whole mess. It’s a bit like growing your own vegetables; less reliant on the fluctuating whims of the wider market.

The recent resolution of the dispute with the Securities and Exchange Commission, a matter which had cast a considerable shadow over XRP’s prospects, is undoubtedly a favourable development. Indeed, the cessation of legal proceedings, and the subsequent relisting on various exchanges, offered a temporary reprieve. Yet, it must be observed that these benefits appear largely priced into the current valuation, representing a recovery from adversity rather than a promise of future prosperity. One might liken it to a fortunate marriage settling into a comfortable, if unremarkable, domesticity.