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FactSet Research, those dedicated chroniclers of financial expectation, suggest a target of 8,255 for the S&P 500. A 21% increase. It’s a bold prediction. (One wonders if they’ve factored in the inherent unpredictability of human behavior, the occasional rogue asteroid, or the possibility that everyone will collectively decide that money is, in fact, entirely pointless. These things happen.) However, there’s a wrinkle. A small, potentially market-disrupting wrinkle. And it involves something called “midterm elections.”

They’re still growing, double digits, which is…something. But buckle up, buttercups, because volatility is less a threat and more a lifestyle choice at this point. Let’s unpack this, shall we?

The figures, of course, are merely abstractions. One might as well attempt to quantify the scent of rain or the melancholy of a forgotten button. The weighted average purchase price, a paltry $143.16, and the closing price on the aforementioned eleventh of February, $141.18, are presented with a solemnity usually reserved for the pronouncements of oracles. As if a few decimal points could truly capture the capricious nature of the market.

ON Semiconductor, for those unfamiliar, makes the little bits of silicon that make…well, just about everything work. Specifically, they’re into power and sensing chips. This puts them smack-dab in the middle of two rather large trends: electrification and automation. They’ve been putting a lot of effort into silicon carbide (SiC) and gallium nitride (GaN) chips. Now, I’m no physicist, but apparently, these materials are a bit like the Usain Bolt of semiconductors. They can handle higher temperatures and voltages, making them ideal for electric vehicles, renewable energy, and all sorts of industrial applications. GaN, meanwhile, is speedy, efficient, and good for AI data centers. It’s a bit like upgrading from a horse-drawn carriage to a rocket ship.

Natera. Thirteen percent of his portfolio. That’s a commitment, or a desperation move, depending on your view. Genetic testing. Women’s health, cancer, the usual. They’re losing money now, but promise high-teens growth. Everyone promises growth. The margins are expanding, they say. Sixty-one point eight to sixty-four point nine percent. That’s a rounding error dressed up as a trend. They’ve got pricing power, naturally. When you’re dealing with health, people tend to pay. Their oncology tests are up fifty-four percent. Cancer is a growth industry. Signatera, their blood test, is supposed to be the key. Personalized medicine. Sounds expensive.

Progeny 3 has, in effect, removed itself from the game. The position now represents a negligible fraction of their reported assets. One imagines the portfolio managers, not celebrating, but simply…adjusting. The world continues, indifferent to their calculations.

With a decline of approximately twenty per cent this year, the question arises: is Palantir a prudent investment, a regrettable indulgence, or merely something to be observed with detached amusement?

The foundation of this empire, however, rests upon the business of insurance. GEICO, a household name, operates under its banner, alongside other policies bearing the Hathaway name. Indeed, the skillful management of premiums, and the subsequent investment of those funds, forms a considerable part of their operating model. One cannot but observe, however, that even the most established houses must occasionally consider the currents of change. Mr. Buffett, during his tenure, and Mr. Jain, overseeing the insurance division, alluded to a certain lagging behind in the realm of digital innovation, a vulnerability keenly felt in the face of younger, more agile competitors.

This was not a sudden impulse, but a deliberate entry. Beck Bode now holds approximately 2.93% of its reported U.S. equity assets – $601.19 million – in Churchill Downs stock. A small portion, perhaps, but a portion nonetheless. Consider the firm’s other holdings: $31.75 million in NVDA, $23.66 million in CAH, $22.73 million in CEG, $21.50 million in ANET, and $21.26 million in ROKU. These are not the holdings of a gambler, but of someone who believes, however cautiously, in the underlying value of the assets.