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On February 28th, 2026, the news broke about the strikes on Iran. The market, predictably, had a little fit. Everyone ran for the exits, then immediately ran back, clutching gold, silver, even U.S. dollars. The dollar, oddly, went up. Which, I suppose, makes a sort of twisted sense. Until Iran responded by essentially closing the Strait of Hormuz. Suddenly, oil was scarce, and the price soared. Gold and silver, however, decided to stage a quiet protest and started falling. It’s like they were offended by all the attention. And my portfolio, naturally, followed suit.

The timing, as it turned out, was impeccable. Or, if you’re a cynic, suspiciously so. GRAIL, a company focused on early cancer detection—a noble pursuit, naturally—had been riding a wave of optimism. More than 185,000 Galleri tests sold, revenue nudging toward $147 million. Impressive, if you ignored the rather substantial losses. Apparently, a lot of people were ignoring the losses. Or hoping they’d magically resolve themselves. The market has a habit of rewarding hope, until it doesn’t.

IonQ (IONQ 2.10%) has become the poster child for this quantum dream. A company promising to rewrite the rules of computation. The numbers last year were…impressive. $130 million in revenue. But in this business, numbers are like smoke and mirrors. They tell you what someone wants you to see.

The rationale, as revealed by the oracle of Morgan Stanley, centers on Lemonade’s foray into insuring autonomous vehicles. A market, they proclaim, poised for explosive growth. Grand View Research predicts a climb from sixty-eight billion dollars this year to two hundred and fourteen billion by 2030. A staggering sum, certainly. Enough to tempt even the most cynical of underwriters. But one wonders if they’ve actually seen a self-driving car navigate a Moscow traffic circle. Or perhaps they’ve simply succumbed to the siren song of ‘disruption,’ a word now devoid of all meaning.

The sale encompassed 335,982 shares, a considerable number, yet in the grand scheme of things, perhaps merely a rounding error in the ledger of larger concerns. One is left to ponder the rationale, not as a dramatic pronouncement of failure, but as a pragmatic reassessment. Ulysses, it seems, has chosen to favor more predictable harbors.

The Vanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF – VIG, as it is known – presents a curious case. It is not, as one might expect, a refuge for the weary investor, content with a slow, steady yield. Nor is it a rocket ship aimed at the heavens. It is, rather, something in between. A compromise, perhaps. And in the world of finance, as in life, compromises often carry a subtle, unspoken sadness.

The details, as filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) – a body dedicated to ensuring everyone plays by the rules, and generating a lot of paperwork in the process – show Paradigm’s stake in Olema now totals $122.09 million. That’s a substantial commitment. It’s like deciding you really, really like a particular brand of artisanal cheese. You start with a small wedge, then before you know it, you’ve invested heavily in the entire dairy farm.

Two companies, in particular, appear to be positioning themselves to capitalize on this shift. They are not necessarily innovators in the purest sense – the initial breakthroughs came elsewhere – but they possess the scale and infrastructure to become dominant players as this technology matures. Their success, however, will depend on more than just technical prowess; it will require an understanding of the inherent limitations of these systems, and a willingness to adapt to unforeseen consequences.

Circumference Group, in a move that suggests a fondness for the slightly tarnished, acquired 305,000 shares of Avantor. A modest wager, perhaps, but one that hints at a belief that the market, in its usual haste, has overvalued pessimism. The shares, at quarter’s end, carried a price that, while diminished, still possessed a certain… dignity.

Palo Alto Networks (PANW 4.05%), a firm specializing in the provision of digital fortifications for large entities and governmental bodies, finds itself, therefore, in a peculiar position. It is not that they have caused the increase in threat, but rather that they are positioned to…document it, and, ostensibly, to mitigate its effects. A curious occupation, to profit from the anxieties of others, though one, it seems, increasingly accepted within the prevailing economic order.