
Let’s rip off the bandage first, shall we? Multiple indicators, the ones that have a knack for predicting downturns, are currently doing a rather dramatic interpretive dance of doom. It’s not subtle. The S&P 500 Shiller CAPE ratio, for example, is at nearly a record high. Which, in layman’s terms, means things are… inflated. It measures average inflation-adjusted earnings over a decade. A long-term valuation tool, basically. Historically, higher CAPE ratios suggest prices could fall. The long-term average is around 17. It peaked in 1999 at 44, just before the dot-com bubble decided to pop. As of right now? Nearing 40. Second-highest ever. It’s like watching a slow-motion car crash. You know it’s coming, you just can’t look away.