The market’s recovery boosted investor confidence after recent declines caused by concerns in the Middle East. This increase also forced many traders who had bet against the market to buy back in, further driving up prices.
Campbell’s, a name synonymous with hearth and home, with the comforting aroma of soup on a cold day. A lineage of brands—Campbell’s, Prego, Rao’s, V8, Goldfish—a veritable pantry of American nostalgia. Yet, the market, that fickle mistress, has seen fit to diminish its standing. The stock has fallen, a descent of forty-one percent over the past year, pushing its dividend yield to a tempting 7.4 percent. Is this a bargain, a chance to acquire a piece of enduring legacy? Or merely a reflection of deeper troubles?
The first of these is energy. The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow throat of the world’s oil supply, is constricted, and the price of black gold, and the gas that feeds our homes and cars, has risen accordingly. A gallon of gasoline, a necessity for so many, has climbed almost a dollar. It’s a harsh reality, but for those who draw their income from the earth, it’s a moment of bounty. ExxonMobil, a giant among them, has seen a lift of over 3% this month. Chevron, too, is climbing. And companies like ConocoPhillips, Phillips 66, Valero Energy, and Marathon Petroleum are all showing double-digit gains. It’s a simple equation, really: scarcity breeds profit, and someone always benefits from the hardship of others.
In a proclamation issued via his Truth Social (a platform of which one might charitably say it is not lacking in candor), Mr. Trump directed the Department of War to suspend its designs upon Iran’s power plants and energy infrastructure for a period of five days, contingent upon the progress of ongoing negotiations. Brent oil, ever sensitive to such pronouncements, retreated to $102.6 (-6.22%) with all the haste of a debutante fleeing an unsuitable match.
In times like these, the discerning investor – or, let us be honest, the professional gambler – begins to sniff around for opportunities. Solana, a cryptocurrency with a certain… audacity, has found itself rather bruised in the recent downturn, losing a full 66% of its value since its January zenith. A steep decline, certainly, but also a potential entry point for those with a fondness for risk and a healthy disregard for conventional wisdom.
And then there’s China. Oh, China. It’s always China, isn’t it? For months, Nvidia was essentially locked out of the Chinese market, which, let’s be honest, is a significant chunk of potential revenue. They were stuck in this incredibly awkward dance with the U.S. government, trying to appease everyone while also, you know, making money. They were basically playing geopolitical chess with silicon. Huang’s been lobbying, doing the whole Washington D.C. schmooze, and it seems to have… worked? They’re restarting sales of the H200 processors. The older model, naturally. Because giving China the really good stuff would be… problematic.
Meanwhile, investors are glued to the U.S. data calendar like it’s the final episode of their favorite show. From March 23 to 27, we’ll get reports on business activity, jobless claims, and consumer sentiment-because nothing calms nerves like knowing how many people can’t afford ramen.
Mr. Trump, ever the orator, declared on Truth Social that the two nations had engaged in “very good and productive conversations regarding a complete and total resolution of our hostilities in the Middle East.” One might wonder if “complete and total” refers to the resolution of hostilities or the resolution of the average citizen’s ability to comprehend the language of politics.
She added to positions in Figma, Arcturus Therapeutics, and 10x Genomics. Which, if you’re scoring at home, is a lot like picking the slightly bruised fruit at the grocery store. It could be perfectly fine, or it could lead to a digestive adventure. Let’s unpack these choices, shall we? Because, as a macro strategist, I’m less interested in the stock picking and more interested in what this tells us about the overall risk appetite—or lack thereof—in the current environment.
Recent historical data – a construct as fragile as it is insistent – indicates that the S&P 500 has experienced a period of… expansion. A 283% total return over the last decade (as of March 19th) suggests a system functioning as intended, though whether that intention benefits the participant or merely reinforces the structure remains a question best left unasked. Certain entities, such as Amazon (AMZN 1.66%), have demonstrably exceeded this average. This, of course, creates the expectation – a silent, insistent demand – that one must select from the multitude. The very act of selection, however, implies a degree of control that is demonstrably absent.