Bitcoin – How ceasefire hopes, oil prices are driving crypto market’s volatility

Enter The Kobeissi Letter, where someone decided to mention a certain tweet from none other than former U.S. President Donald Trump, who recently told the world on Truth Social that the U.S. demands “unconditional surrender” from Iran. Oh, and just to spice things up, this could delay any peace talks. But hey, why not stir the pot while you’re at it, right?

Berkshire’s Abel & The Long View

Abel, in a move that suggests a continuation of sound judgment, has highlighted four stocks that Berkshire holds dear. He describes them as businesses understood well, led by chaps he clearly approves of, and possessing the rather desirable quality of being likely to “compound over decades.” A most sensible aspiration, wouldn’t you agree? He also hinted, in a manner that was blessedly free of the usual financial jargon, that Berkshire isn’t planning any hasty exits from these positions. A refreshing change, as one often finds investment strategies resembling a particularly frantic game of musical chairs.

The Weight of Transactions: A Choice Between Fading Hope and Enduring Strength

From 2021 to 2025, the expansion of its active accounts was a paltry increase from 426 million to 439 million. A pathetic growth, considering the grand ambitions of reaching 750 million by 2025 – a goal abandoned, like a discarded faith. It strives now to compensate, to force more transactions through its branded checkout, the ephemeral Venmo, debit cards, and the siren song of “buy now, pay later” services. But is this merely a desperate attempt to delay the inevitable, to rearrange the deck chairs on a sinking vessel?

Mondelez: A Defensive Position with Limited Upside

The outperformance of consumer staples ETFs obscures significant disparities in underlying holdings. Costco and Walmart, comprising a substantial portion of these ETFs, exhibit price-to-earnings ratios comparable to those of high-growth technology firms – a metric that warrants careful consideration. The apparent safety of the sector, therefore, may be illusory.

Buffett’s Last Shuffle: Stocks, Time, and So It Goes

He trimmed Apple, naturally. And Amazon, too. Four and a half billion dollars worth of trimming. That’s a lot of paper, or electrons, depending on how you look at it. But Warren wasn’t just selling; he was making a bet. A bet on something…older. Something with roots. A newspaper, of all things.

Lemonade: A Faint Bloom in the Frost

It sought to capture the young, the uninitiated, those for whom the old ways of insurance felt like a labyrinthine bureaucracy. A digital-first approach, yes, but more than that, a promise of simplicity in a world grown needlessly complex. It began with the shelter of homes and possessions, then branched into the more vulnerable realms of life, health, and the fleeting years. The acquisition of Metromile, a curious grafting of technologies, hinted at a broader ambition – to encompass all the uncertainties of modern existence.

Nvidia: The Data Center and the Algorithm

For some time, the market has viewed Nvidia as a beneficiary of the so-called ‘artificial intelligence’ – a term that carries a weight of expectation entirely disproportionate to any demonstrable result. But this assessment, like so many, proved incomplete. It is no longer a matter of benefit; it is a matter of complete dependence. The company’s future, a future we are all compelled to observe, is now almost entirely contingent on the expansion of a particular infrastructure, an infrastructure that seems to grow not from need, but from an internal, inexorable logic.

The Gilded Cage: Shadows Over the Bull Market

The tariffs, though legally vanquished, remain a symptom of a larger malady – a distrust in the established order, a yearning for control that threatens to unravel the delicate threads of international commerce. Yet, even this visible threat pales in comparison to the specters haunting the market’s future. Two particular anxieties weigh heavily upon the discerning observer, two potential catalysts for a correction that, when it arrives, will be as inevitable as a winter frost.

Chipotle: A Burrito and a Sigh

The restaurant landscape, a battlefield of rising prices, has shifted. Diners, those fickle creatures, are expressing a newfound interest in… restraint. Chili’s, that bastion of casual dining, is enjoying a renaissance. Meanwhile, Chipotle and Wingstop, purveyors of reasonably priced indulgence, are feeling the pinch. A curious state of affairs. It’s as if the public has collectively decided that moderation, however unappetizing, is the order of the day.