Circle: A Speculative Bubble?

Circle’s reported revenue growth, a figure of fifty-nine percent year over year for the first nine months of 2025, is, on the surface, impressive. But numbers, divorced from context, are easily misinterpreted. The crucial detail is the source of this revenue: ninety-six percent derives from reserve income. In simpler terms, Circle profits from holding money – a practice not unknown, of course, but one that renders the company less an innovator and more a sophisticated form of banking. This model is vulnerable. A decline in interest rates, or an increase in the amount of USDC in circulation, are the levers upon which this entire structure rests. The recent doubling of USDC in circulation is not a sign of strength, but a temporary boost to income – a tide that will inevitably recede.








