usdaed

People are even starting to use artificial intelligence – clever bits of code that are, in theory, capable of thinking for themselves – to participate in these markets. Essentially, they’re building digital bookies. It’s all rather futuristic, and slightly unsettling. The AI isn’t placing bets on the Derby, mind you. It’s trading in probabilities, which feels…different. But both Kalshi and Polymarket are still private companies, and most of the AI firms are busy selling their services to governments and big corporations. Which leaves a curious gap in the market, as it were.

Fourteen years passed, and that initial idealism yielded to a more pragmatic silence regarding direct engagement with military applications. Project Maven, a venture into the realm of artificial intelligence for defense, was quietly abandoned. A gesture, one might argue, more of calculated public relations than genuine moral conviction. But time, as always, reveals the complexities.

For years, we labored under the illusion of individual agency. Analysts, fund managers, each believing their intellect could outwit the market. A quaint delusion. Now, this agency is dissolving, replaced by a relentless, unthinking force. The passive investor, no longer seeking value, but merely replicating the market itself. A mirror reflecting… what, exactly? A distorted image, perhaps, of a prosperity built on sand.

I’ve been looking at two players in particular: Royal Caribbean (RCL 1.24%) and Viking Holdings (VIK 4.52%). It’s like comparing a sprawling resort with a million activities to a rather exclusive, minimalist spa. Both are selling ‘escape,’ but in very different ways.

And now, a change approaches. In two months, the very institution that has, for so long, underwritten this expansion may become the instrument of its undoing. The nomination of a successor to the current Chairman, a man of established, if not entirely predictable, temperament, carries with it the potential to disrupt the delicate equilibrium that has sustained this prolonged bull market. It is a truth universally acknowledged that investors abhor uncertainty, yet uncertainty is the very essence of the market itself. The illusion of control, the belief in the possibility of foresight, are comforting fictions, but fictions nonetheless.

Let us consider, then, three enterprises that, while not offering the breathless promise of the very latest innovation, nonetheless present a reasonable prospect for the patient investor.

Blowout quarters are rare in this business, like sober accountants at a shareholder meeting. But Verizon delivered, and the sheep…the investors…they reacted. Up 25.5% year-to-date. That’s a full-blown feeding frenzy. I’ve seen less action at a Tijuana donkey fight. It’s enough to make a man question reality. Or at least his broker’s sanity.

Each possesses a well-established foundation, built upon years of endeavor and ingenuity. Yet, it is their engagement with this nascent field of artificial intelligence that has captured the imagination of investors, and indeed, the world. For AI, it is believed, holds the key to unlocking unprecedented efficiency, driving innovation at a pace hitherto unimaginable. It is a seductive promise, yet one fraught with uncertainty, a double-edged sword that could elevate humanity or hasten its decline.

But let’s not dwell on nomenclature. The point is, someone is going to get paid. And that, as any seasoned observer of the financial cosmos will tell you, is always interesting.

The usual suspects have been at play: oil prices doing their impression of a startled cobra, a frantic rush to anything shiny and traditionally considered ‘safe’ (gold, silver, and the increasingly popular habit of hiding under the duvet), and a predictable boost for those who manufacture things that go ‘boom’. However, a closer look reveals that many companies, caught in the crosscurrents, are less affected than the headlines suggest. Morgan Stanley’s wizards² have pointed out, with the sort of hindsight that’s always impeccably clear, that markets tend to shrug off these sorts of disruptions. In fact, they’ve historically been up a bit after a month, a good deal more after six, and positively buoyant after a year. Go figure.