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The pursuit of lasting value in the retail sector has always been a fool’s errand, a dance with shadows. To believe one could predict the whims of consumers, their sudden cravings and fleeting loyalties, was to misunderstand the very nature of desire. Yet, here we are, attempting to discern which of these behemoths, these modern-day cathedrals of consumption, will offer a slightly less illusory return. They have, for decades, rewarded those who participate in the ritual, but the gods of the market are fickle, and even the most devoted pilgrims should approach with a measure of skepticism.

Realty Income is, to put it mildly, a dividend machine. They’ve paid a monthly dividend for, well, an astonishingly long time – 667 consecutive months as of this writing. That’s roughly 55 years of reliably showing up with the goods. They’ve also increased that payment 133 times since 1994. One hundred and thirty-three! It’s enough to make one wonder if they have a dedicated team of dividend-boosting elves tucked away somewhere. Their dividend has grown at a compound annual rate of 4.2% over that period, which is, frankly, quite respectable.

There’s this company. You probably know the old name. It dealt in sofas and televisions for those of us who haven’t quite mastered the art of delayed gratification. Now it’s called Upbound. A cheerful name. A bit optimistic, perhaps. But then, hope springs eternal, even in the portfolios of the cynical.

Data storage. Sounds dull, doesn’t it? Like watching paint dry. But everything runs on storage. Every dream, every scheme, every cat video. Sandisk makes the boxes that hold it all. They deal in the hard stuff – the silicon and circuits. And right now, that’s where the money is, if you know where to look.

The iShares Global Clean Energy ETF has yet to fully recover from the correction experienced in 2021, a factor that introduces a degree of caution. The current rally, therefore, necessitates a rigorous assessment of underlying drivers and potential sustainability.

To select a single vessel for decades of investment—a preposterous notion, really, to place such faith in any system. Yet, if compelled to choose, one observes a pattern, a carefully curated semblance of stability within the broader chaos. The allure lies not in genuine security, but in the appearance of it, a palliative against the anxieties of the modern investor.

Over the last five years, the stock has performed with the enthusiasm of a troll guarding a particularly boring bridge – a decline of nearly 58%. Quarterly revenue and net income have been heading south with the migratory patterns of particularly pessimistic geese.¹

So, the question is this: is this a moment for sensible folk to cautiously dip a toe into the water, or a warning sign to run for the hills? Let’s have a proper look, shall we?

The suggestion that retail investors might “emulate his philosophy” is, predictably, widespread. Here is presented a ‘simple test’ – a comforting narrative for those who prefer the appearance of control to the acceptance of risk.

For years, 3M was a veritable fountain of invention, churning out over 1,000 new products annually. A thousand! That’s like a product a day, plus a few for good measure. But then they slowed down. They got…comfortable. By 2024, they were launching fewer than 170. It’s like a comedian who stopped writing jokes and just started telling knock-knock jokes. The audience will eventually riot. Luckily, 3M didn’t quite face a full-scale revolt, but their numbers were…uninspiring, to put it mildly.