Buffett’s Illusion of Control

The suggestion that retail investors might “emulate his philosophy” is, predictably, widespread. Here is presented a ‘simple test’ – a comforting narrative for those who prefer the appearance of control to the acceptance of risk.

3M: From Dustbins to Breakthroughs (Oy Vey!)

For years, 3M was a veritable fountain of invention, churning out over 1,000 new products annually. A thousand! That’s like a product a day, plus a few for good measure. But then they slowed down. They got…comfortable. By 2024, they were launching fewer than 170. It’s like a comedian who stopped writing jokes and just started telling knock-knock jokes. The audience will eventually riot. Luckily, 3M didn’t quite face a full-scale revolt, but their numbers were…uninspiring, to put it mildly.

Bitcoin: A Glimmer in the Darkness

Yet, to dismiss it entirely would be foolish. This Bitcoin… it’s a coiled spring, they say. Awaiting release. I suspect it will jump, yes. A hundred and seventeen percent, some predict, reaching for a $200,000 illusion. It’s a gamble, of course. Everything is a gamble when you have nothing left to lose.

Fluor: Building Things, Eventually

They’re currently chasing $3.3 billion in contracts, with a backlog of $28.2 billion. A substantial number, really. Enough to keep a lot of people busy, building things that will, eventually, be used. Or not. It rarely matters in the long run.

Gilded Cages: Blackstone & Brookfield

Blackstone boasts a decade of 26.5% annualized returns. Brookfield, a respectable 18.3%. Better than the S&P 500, they say. But what does ‘better’ mean when the game is rigged? These numbers are whispers in the halls of power, while the worker struggles to afford a loaf of bread. Still, the market cares little for bread; it craves growth, even if built on shifting sands.

SoundHound: A Rather Promising Diversion

The share price, currently experiencing a bit of a wobble – down over 41% in the last quarter, my dear – is, of course, alarming. But frankly, these short-term fluctuations are rarely indicative of genuine worth. One must look beneath the surface, assess the fundamentals, and decide if a little risk might yield a rather handsome return. And SoundHound, despite its recent misfortunes, possesses a certain… allure.

The Next Big Block: Or, How to Retire (Possibly)

But time, as they say, marches on. Or, in the case of blockchain technology, iterates at a frankly alarming rate. Which begs the question: is it time to cast a discerning eye towards the up-and-coming challengers to Ethereum’s throne? If one of these rivals does manage to overtake Ethereum and become the dominant Layer 1 blockchain, well, let’s just say the resulting valuation could be… significant. And by ‘significant’, I mean potentially capable of funding a small nation-state. (Or, more realistically, a moderately comfortable retirement.)

Sirius XM: Still Broadcasting…Or Just Static?

The trouble is, the world changed. It used to be, if you wanted tunes in your car, you had two choices: AM radio, which mostly played polka and emergency broadcasts, or Sirius XM. Now? Now you’ve got more options than there are characters in a Gilbert & Sullivan operetta! And they’re all fighting for your attention…and your subscription dollars.