Pagaya: Honestly, What Did They Expect?

So, Pagaya Technologies (PGY 24.03%). Fintech, they call it. Next generation. Right. More like next level irritating, if you ask me. The stock took a hit today – almost 24% – and honestly, I’m not entirely surprised. It’s not that the numbers were terrible, it’s just… the expectation. The implication that they’re some kind of wunderkind. It’s exhausting.

They reported quarterly results. $335 million in revenue. Fine. Up 20% year over year. Okay. But network volume? $2.7 billion. A three percent increase? Three percent! It’s like they’re trying to be polite about it. “Oh, we’re growing, just… very, very slowly.” It’s insulting, frankly. You’re in fintech, you’re supposed to be disrupting, innovating. Not inching forward like a snail.

And the net income? Nearly $78.8 million? Don’t even get me started on non-GAAP accounting. It’s a game. A complete game. They can make numbers say anything they want. It’s like a magician pulling rabbits out of a hat, except instead of rabbits, it’s… profit. Supposed profit.

The analysts were expecting $349 million in revenue. A mere $14 million difference! But apparently, that’s enough to send everyone into a panic. It’s like people can’t handle nuance anymore. Everything has to be perfect. They beat the adjusted net income estimate, by the way. Of course, nobody mentions that. It’s always the negative, isn’t it?

They’re claiming this whole thing is because they exited their single-family rental business. Strategic shift, they call it. Well, good for them. But don’t pretend it doesn’t affect the numbers. It’s like rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic and then acting surprised when the ship still sinks. It’s just… disingenuous.

And the guidance? Don’t even get me started on the guidance. Flat network volume for the next quarter. Flat! They’re basically saying, “We’re going to do the same thing we did before.” What’s the point? Revenue projected at $315 to $335 million. Below analyst estimates, naturally. They couldn’t hit the number once, so now everyone’s freaking out. It’s a vicious cycle.

They’re forecasting $1.4 to $1.58 billion in revenue for the year. And $100 to $150 million in net income. It’s all so… pedestrian. So… average. And that’s the problem. Everyone expects these tech companies to be extraordinary. To change the world. To solve all our problems. And when they don’t, we act like it’s a personal affront.

Honestly, I don’t understand the sell-off. It’s a slight miss on the top line, a strategic shift, and some cautious guidance. It’s not the end of the world. It’s not like they committed some kind of financial crime. It’s just… disappointing. And people hate disappointing. I’d still be a buyer, though. Because, frankly, everyone else is overreacting. It’s always the overreaction that creates the opportunity.

2026-02-10 01:42

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