Oneok’s Slow Climb & My Heating Bill

by

So, Oneok (OKE 5.18%). I confess, I didn’t know much about them until Tuesday, when the stock took a little dip – about 7%, though it rallied somewhat, settling down 4.9%. It’s funny, isn’t it? How you only really notice a company when it’s momentarily unwell. It reminded me of my Uncle Earl, who only called when he needed a ride to the airport. Turns out, Oneok deals with natural gas pipelines, which, as a Midwesterner, is something I’m intimately acquainted with, mostly through the annual shock of the winter heating bill.

Loading widget...

The 2026 Forecast & My Cousin’s Data Center

They reported earnings last night, beating expectations, which is good. But the 2026 guidance… well, it wasn’t exactly inspiring. Revenue was $9.07 billion, earnings per share $1.55. Solid numbers, really. Though, the earnings were slightly down from the previous year, blamed on a particularly nasty winter that delayed some plant work. Honestly, I’m starting to suspect winter is just a conspiracy orchestrated by HVAC companies. Still, they beat analyst expectations, which, in this market, feels like winning a participation trophy.

Here’s the kicker: they’re forecasting only $8.1 billion in adjusted EBITDA for 2026. Barely an increase from the $8.085 billion they made last year. It feels… cautious. My cousin, Dale, is obsessed with AI. He’s convinced data centers are the future. He keeps trying to explain it to me, and frankly, it just sounds like a lot of humming and expensive electricity bills. Apparently, these data centers need a lot of natural gas. You’d think that would translate to a boom for Oneok. But, no. They’re anticipating pricing pressures. Lower hedged prices, location differentials… it’s all very technical, and frankly, exhausting.

Natural gas prices are volatile, of course. They’ve come down from last year, which is good for my wallet, but apparently not so good for Oneok’s bottom line. They say about 10-15% of their business is exposed to these fluctuations. It’s a strange thing, isn’t it? Being a midstream company, seemingly so vital, yet still vulnerable to the whims of the market.

Dividends & The Illusion of Stability

I keep reading about the insatiable demand for natural gas, fueled by AI and LNG exports. But then I remember my grandmother, who always said a warm winter was a sign of a harsh summer. And, of course, climate change. Warmer temperatures mean less demand for heating. It’s a paradox. We want innovation, but we also want to stay warm. It’s exhausting, really.

Oneok’s dividend is currently around 4.8%, which is… reassuring. It’s the kind of thing that makes you feel like you’re at least trying to be responsible. They increased it by 4% last year, and I suspect they’ll continue to do so, at least in line with inflation. It’s not going to make me rich, but it’s a nice little buffer against the inevitable cost of everything going up. It’s the illusion of stability in a world that feels increasingly unstable. I’ll take it. Especially with winter coming.

Read More

2026-02-24 23:42