Ondas: Drones, Maduro, and My Portfolio

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Ondas Holdings (ONDS +7.69%). It sounds like a spa treatment, doesn’t it? I confess, I first stumbled upon this stock while attempting to diversify away from, well, everything else. My brother-in-law, Dale, keeps insisting on “blue chip” stocks. As if anyone actually enjoys being predictable. Anyway, Ondas. They make drones. Or, they’re moving towards making drones. Last year was… something. It quadrupled. Which, in my experience, usually means it’s about to do the opposite. But let’s unpack this, because I’ve put a not-insignificant amount of my grandmother’s inheritance into it.

The company is small. Painfully so. I’ve lost more money on impulse purchases of artisanal cheeses. But last year, something shifted. Everyone’s chasing the next AI breakthrough, and apparently, autonomous drones fit the bill. It’s a bit like everyone deciding, simultaneously, that macramé is cool again. The stock finished the year up 281%. Looking at the chart, it was mostly flat for six months. Six months of me quietly worrying, then suddenly – whoosh. It’s the kind of volatility that makes you question your life choices, and whether you really needed that third cup of coffee.

For the first half of the year, Ondas was practically invisible. Then, in early August, it jumped 51% in three days. Apparently, they nominated a Brigadier General – Yaniv Rotem – to their advisory board. A Brigadier General! I’m not entirely sure what a Brigadier General knows about drone technology, but it sounds… official. They also announced successful counter-drone pilot programs in Europe and Asia. Which, let’s be honest, sounds like something out of a Tom Clancy novel. The market seemed to interpret this as “they know what they’re doing,” and the stock took off. It was the kind of rally that makes you suspicious. Like, what are they not telling us?

Their second-quarter earnings report was… interesting. Revenue jumped from $1 million to $6.3 million. Good, right? Except their net loss widened from $9.4 million to $12 million. It’s like running faster to fall further behind. They reaffirmed their full-year revenue target of $25 million, which Wall Street analysts seemed to swallow whole. I’m starting to think analysts live in a different reality. They sold $425 million worth of shares at the peak, which felt… ominous. Like everyone was quietly getting out while the getting was good.

And now, 2026 has started with a bang. Or, a pop, as they say in the financial world. The apprehension of President Maduro of Venezuela seems to be driving up defense stocks. Honestly, I hadn’t made the connection between Venezuelan politics and my drone stock, but apparently, there’s a link. On January 20th, the stock jumped even as the broader market fell. Investors apparently believed tensions over Greenland were… good for Ondas. I’m not sure I follow the logic, but who am I to question the market?

Look, Ondas is still a high-risk, speculative stock. I fully acknowledge that I could lose everything. But if investor sentiment remains on their side, it could go higher. Analysts expect triple-digit revenue growth, which sounds… ambitious. I’m cautiously optimistic, mostly because I’ve already told Dale about it, and I can’t bear the thought of admitting he was right about anything. It’s a terrible reason to invest, I know. But sometimes, pride outweighs logic. And a small, speculative drone stock feels… strangely hopeful.

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2026-01-21 00:02