Stock prices, as anyone who’s ever nervously refreshed a portfolio on a Friday afternoon knows, are fickle. They go up, they go down. And the explanations? Usually, they feel like something a particularly enthusiastic accountant dreamed up after a week of lukewarm tea. I’ve been staring at these charts for twenty years, and I still feel like I’m guessing. Take gold and oil, for example. Both commodities, both priced in dollars. You’d assume they’d move in tandem, right? When the dollar’s strong, you get more for your money. Simple. Except, of course, it never is.
Iran, Oil, and My Investment Thesis
On February 28th, 2026, the news broke about the strikes on Iran. The market, predictably, had a little fit. Everyone ran for the exits, then immediately ran back, clutching gold, silver, even U.S. dollars. The dollar, oddly, went up. Which, I suppose, makes a sort of twisted sense. Until Iran responded by essentially closing the Strait of Hormuz. Suddenly, oil was scarce, and the price soared. Gold and silver, however, decided to stage a quiet protest and started falling. It’s like they were offended by all the attention. And my portfolio, naturally, followed suit.
Newmont Corp. (NEM 3.41%) is down 15%. Barrick Mining (B 2.95%) is down 16%. Hecla Mining (HL 2.44%), the silver champion, is down 17%. It’s a bloodbath, really. And it’s not just the stocks; the metals themselves are taking a beating. Down 10% and 16%, respectively. I keep expecting someone to send me a sympathy card.
But here’s the thing: what does the price of gold have to do with the price of oil? Besides both being shiny and occasionally causing wars, I mean. It’s a question that’s kept me awake at night, mostly because I’m fairly certain the answer involves something complicated and unpleasant.
Why High Oil Prices Are Ruining My Retirement (and Yours)
The theory, as explained by a very serious man in a very serious suit, is this: oil is everywhere. Not just in your gas tank, but in everything that gets shipped, everything that gets delivered. When oil prices go up, the cost of transportation goes up, and suddenly, everything is more expensive. It’s called inflation, and it’s a real mood killer.
And when the Federal Reserve sees inflation rising—and they will, because they always do—they’re less likely to lower interest rates and more likely to raise them. Which means it costs businesses more to borrow money. And when investors see interest rates rise, they start thinking, “Hey, bonds actually pay interest! Maybe I should put my money there instead of some shiny metal that just sits around.” It’s shockingly logical, really.
(Barrick, Newmont, and Hecla do pay dividends, yes. But those dividends start to look a little pathetic when you can get a decent return on a risk-free bond. It’s like offering someone a slightly stale cookie when they’re expecting a chocolate cake.)
So, in a nutshell: high oil prices drive inflation, which drives up interest rates, which makes bonds more attractive than precious metals. And that, my friends, is why my portfolio is currently resembling a small, sad heap. I’m starting to think I should have invested in something less… volatile. Like stamps. Or maybe just a really comfortable chair.
Read More
- Seeing Through the Lies: A New Approach to Detecting Image Forgeries
- Staying Ahead of the Fakes: A New Approach to Detecting AI-Generated Images
- Julia Roberts, 58, Turns Heads With Sexy Plunging Dress at the Golden Globes
- Top 10 Coolest Things About Invincible (Mark Grayson)
- Top 20 Dinosaur Movies, Ranked
- Silver Rate Forecast
- Gold Rate Forecast
- Smarter Reasoning, Less Compute: Teaching Models When to Stop
- Palantir and Tesla: A Tale of Two Stocks
- Unmasking falsehoods: A New Approach to AI Truthfulness
2026-03-22 19:52