Oil & Fury: Riding the Iran Storm (If You Must)

The price of crude. Jesus. It’s been a goddamn seismograph of geopolitical anxiety this year. Started around sixty bucks a barrel, then…WHOOSH. Near $120. Now bobbing around like a bad conscience just under 110. A volatile beast, alright. And the Strait of Hormuz…that’s where the real fun begins. A choke point. A goddamn pressure cooker. This isn’t investing; it’s a high-stakes game of chicken with forces you can’t possibly comprehend.

So, you want to play? Fine. But don’t come crying to me when the whole thing implodes. Here are a couple of strategies, if you can call them that, for navigating this…situation. Consider them desperate measures for desperate times. And remember: there are no guarantees. Only probabilities. And the odds, my friends, are stacked against you.

Ride the Wave, Or Get Crushed By It

The logic, if you can call it that, is simple. If the Strait stays closed, oil goes vertical. If Iran decides to get…expressive…with energy infrastructure, same thing. But if they suddenly decide to be reasonable? If peace breaks out? Forget about it. Prices plummet. A classic double-bind. So, you invest in companies that can survive either scenario. The ones that aren’t completely reliant on a perpetually escalating crisis.

Take ExxonMobil (XOM +0.95%). They’ve been quietly tightening the screws, focusing on efficiency, squeezing every last drop of profit out of the barrel. Investing in “advantaged assets,” they call it. Sounds sterile, doesn’t it? But it means they can bleed money out of the ground even when the price is in the toilet. They’re aiming for a $25 billion earnings boost and a $35 billion cash flow surge by 2030. Assuming…and that’s a BIG assuming…things stay roughly as insane as they are now. They reckon they can generate $145 billion in surplus cash at $65 Brent. Which means they can keep the dividend flowing (43 years of increases – a monument to corporate inertia) and buy back shares. It’s a slow, grinding machine designed to extract wealth regardless of the prevailing chaos. Lower oil prices? They adapt. Higher prices? They gorge. A truly terrifying prospect.

The Pipeline Ploy: A Slightly Less Insane Option

Alright, let’s be honest. Directly betting on oil price swings is for adrenaline junkies and fools. A slightly saner approach? Pipeline companies. These guys don’t care what‘s in the oil, they just care that it moves. They generate steady cash flow from long-term contracts and regulated rates. A comforting predictability in a world gone mad.

Take Kinder Morgan (KMI 1.51%). They get 70% of their cash flow from “take-or-pay” contracts and hedging agreements. Basically, customers pay them even if they don’t actually take the oil. Another 26% comes from fixed fees. Only 4% is directly exposed to price swings. Four percent! That’s practically a miracle in this environment. They’re building new pipelines, expanding their infrastructure, and paying a growing dividend (nine years running). They’ve got nearly $10 billion in projects underway. A relentless, unstoppable force of…well, pipelines. It’s not glamorous, but it’s…stable. Relatively speaking, of course.

A Word to the Wise (And the Reckless)

Oil prices are going to remain a goddamn rollercoaster during this Iran situation. You can try to play the game, if you insist. Buy oil stocks like ExxonMobil, which can survive a downturn. Or invest in pipeline companies like Kinder Morgan, which are shielded from the worst of the volatility. But remember this: you’re not predicting the future. You’re just placing a bet. And the house…the house always wins. Don’t say I didn’t warn you.

2026-03-23 09:52

Ride the Wave, Or Get Crushed By It

The Pipeline Ploy: A Slightly Less Insane Option

A Word to the Wise (And the Reckless)

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