Right. So, oil. It’s hovering just under a hundred bucks a barrel, which, let’s be honest, feels less like economic news and more like a slightly predictable disaster movie plot point. Everyone’s twitching about the Strait of Hormuz – apparently, it’s become a bit of a bottleneck – and Iran is, shall we say, making a statement. Which means expensive fuel is… well, here. And, naturally, a few companies are poised to profit. It’s almost vulgar, isn’t it?
Three Titans, One Pricey Problem
These three – ExxonMobil, Chevron, and ConocoPhillips – they all had a bit of a wobble in 2025. Lower earnings across the board. Crude prices dipped, and suddenly everyone was feeling a little… exposed. It’s funny, isn’t it? How quickly things change. One minute you’re feeling invincible, the next you’re scrambling to explain why your numbers aren’t quite as shiny as you hoped.
ExxonMobil (XOM +0.73%) took a 14% hit to their net income – down to $28.84 billion. Still, they managed to squeeze out a production record of 4.7 million oil-equivalent barrels a day. Over forty years, apparently. It’s… a lot of oil. Like, a frankly terrifying amount of oil when you really think about it.
Chevron (CVX +1.41%) wasn’t much better. Net income down 30% to $12.30 billion. They did, however, acquire Hess, which boosted their production to 3,723 MBOED – a 12% jump. Acquisitions. Always a good way to distract from the messy bits.
ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) saw their realized prices fall 19% year-over-year, dragging net income down 13.34% to $7.99 billion. Honestly, it all feels a bit… cyclical, doesn’t it? Like watching a particularly predictable soap opera.
But here’s the thing. That $100 oil? That’s… convenient. Very convenient. It sets these companies up to basically print money in 2026. It’s not ethical, exactly, but then, when is it ever?
Playing the Price Game
At current prices, ExxonMobil is the sturdiest of the lot. Forty-three years of dividend growth. A 2.64% yield. $51.97 billion in operating cash flow. They can buy back shares, invest in new projects, and still have enough left over to… well, probably buy a small country. CEO Darren Woods put it rather plainly: “ExxonMobil is a fundamentally stronger company than it was just a few years ago.” Which is… reassuring, I suppose. If you’re an ExxonMobil shareholder, that is.
ExxonMobil has a knack for staying afloat regardless of where the oil settles. It’s… boringly reliable. Like that slightly irritating aunt who always brings a sensible gift.
ConocoPhillips, on the other hand, is a bit more… sensitive. More responsive to rising prices. They’re aiming for $7 billion in incremental free cash flow by 2029, and the Marathon Oil synergies should give them an extra boost. Basically, they’re betting big on higher prices. It’s a gamble, of course. But what isn’t?
The bear case for all three is the same, really: oil dropping back down to the low $60s. Which is where Brent spent much of late 2025. It would squeeze margins, obviously. But not catastrophically. They’ve been there before. ExxonMobil’s cost savings and dividend history prove that. ConocoPhillips’s earnings sensitivity and Chevron’s production growth each offer distinct profiles, depending on how the price swings. It’s a complex dance, really. And I, for one, am exhausted just thinking about it.
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2026-03-19 20:32