Of Warehouses, Restaurants, and the Peculiarities of Growth

A curious thing has transpired with Cava Group (CAVA +0.00%). A sudden effervescence, a lifting of spirits in the marketplace. One might almost suspect a clandestine distribution of particularly potent kvass. I observed it, naturally, back in January, when the stock price had taken a most undignified tumble. The panic, you see, was not born of any genuine ailment within Cava itself, but rather a general malaise affecting those establishments serving, shall we say, more civilized fare. A temporary indigestion of the market, if you will. The company continues to demonstrate a knack for profitability, even as it plots its expansion – a most ambitious undertaking, akin to building a miniature empire of olives and feta.

The recent surge – a 25% leap, if my calculations are correct – coincided with the announcement of revenues exceeding a billion. A rather substantial sum, though one cannot help but wonder if it was not tallied by a clerk with a fondness for adding extra zeros. They speak of 74 to 76 new establishments by 2026, a relentless march toward 500, then a thousand. A most audacious plan. The CEO, a Mr. Schulman, assures us that consumer spending remains…steady. Steady, indeed. As if the public were not prone to fits of whimsy and sudden reversals of fortune. They are introducing salmon, you see. Salmon! As if the addition of a single fish could alter the course of economic destiny. And these “TurboChef” ovens…a mechanical marvel, no doubt, though one suspects they are powered by the sighs of overworked cooks.

It is this very formula – expansion, innovation, and a reliance on increasingly complex machinery – that seems to be captivating the market. And it is a formula, I observe, being replicated elsewhere. Allow me to present three further examples, each with its own peculiar charm.

1. Costco Wholesale

Ah, Costco Wholesale (COST +0.25%). A veritable cathedral of commerce, built not of stone and stained glass, but of bulk discounts and free samples. They are erecting warehouses with the same methodical precision as Cava builds its restaurants, only on a scale that threatens to swallow entire towns. Twenty-eight new warehouses in the coming fiscal year, and a stated intention to exceed thirty annually thereafter. A relentless, almost unsettling, growth. Half of these will be international, stretching across continents like the tentacles of some mercantile kraken.

The CFO, a Mr. Millerchip, speaks of “five to ten years” of planning. Five to ten years! As if one could predict the whims of the market with such accuracy. It is a delusion, of course, but a comforting one. They are converting old hypermarkets and home improvement stores into warehouses. A rather ingenious solution, though one wonders what became of the previous tenants. Did they simply vanish into the ether, swallowed by the insatiable appetite of Costco? They are building a particularly large warehouse in Monterrey, Mexico. A monument to excess, no doubt.

And then there is Kirkland Signature, their private-label brand. Ninety percent of members cite it as a reason for renewal. A most curious statistic. It seems the public is content to surrender its individuality in exchange for a slightly cheaper bottle of mustard. They introduced thirty new products in the last quarter alone. Organic foods, luxury skincare…a bewildering array of goods. It is enough to make one question the very nature of desire.

2. Chipotle Mexican Grill

Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG 0.79) is embarking on a venture it has never before attempted: a true global expansion. They reached 4,000 restaurants in December, a rather impressive feat, though one suspects the counting was done by a team of exhausted interns. The CEO, a Mr. Boatwright, rang the bell at the New York Stock Exchange, a ritual as meaningless as it is ostentatious. Since 2017, they have added 1,700 locations, a 70% increase in their North American footprint. A relentless march forward, driven by a thirst for burritos and a disregard for the laws of physics.

But it is the international expansion that truly captures the imagination. They have signed a joint venture with SPC Group to open restaurants in South Korea and Singapore. Asia! A land of ancient mysteries and questionable sanitation. They have agreements with Alshaya Group and Alsea to bring Chipotle to Dubai, Kuwait, and Mexico. And in Europe, they are accelerating in London, with twenty locations and counting. It is a bold undertaking, fraught with peril, but also brimming with potential.

Their long-term target remains 7,000 restaurants in North America, with 350 to 370 new openings planned for 2026. One per day! A relentless, almost unsettling, pace. It is enough to make one question the very nature of time.

3. TJX Companies

In late February, TJX Companies (TJX +2.40) reported its fiscal year results. Sales were up 9%, earnings per share exceeded expectations. A rather unremarkable performance, one might think. Yet, the market reacted negatively, pushing the stock down. The CEO, a Mr. Herrman, spoke of “off-price fundamentals” and a “treasure hunt” shopping experience. A curious phrase. As if shopping were not already a treasure hunt, a desperate search for bargains amidst a sea of mediocrity.

But I am not fazed. Like Chipotle, TJX is expanding its empire at a rate that leaves most retailers gasping for air. They plan to open 146 new stores in 2026, bringing their total to 5,300. The long-term vision is 7,000 stores globally. Another 1,700 to come, scattered across the continents like the seeds of some mercantile weed. They are scaling their Sierra outdoor brand and opening smaller-format stores in rural areas. A cunning strategy, though one suspects it is driven by a desire to conquer every last inch of retail space.

TJX, like Cava, understands the peculiar alchemy of growth. An investment here, I suspect, will prove…fruitful. Though one should always remember that the market is a fickle beast, prone to sudden whims and irrational exuberance. And that even the most carefully laid plans can be undone by a single, unforeseen event. Perhaps a rogue pigeon, a sudden hailstorm, or the inexplicable disappearance of a key executive.

2026-03-10 20:16

1. Costco Wholesale

2. Chipotle Mexican Grill

3. TJX Companies

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