Nvidia: The AI Bubble & My Portfolio

Right. Nvidia. Everyone’s talking about it. It’s the darling of Wall Street, apparently. A market cap the size of a small country. Honestly, it’s a bit intimidating. February 25th is earnings day, which means another frenzy of hype. I’m trying to be rational. I really am. But it’s hard when everyone’s getting rich quick. It’s like being at a party where everyone else is dancing and you’re just… analyzing the structural integrity of the floor.

The stock’s up 1500% since late 2022. Fifteen hundred percent. That’s… a lot. It feels less like investing and more like catching a falling meteor. Should I pile in? Should I run screaming? My therapist says I have a tendency to overthink. She’s probably right.

Where Exactly is This Train Going?

Apparently, 90% of Nvidia’s revenue comes from data centers. Which sounds terribly important and complicated. They make these “AI accelerators” which, as far as I can tell, are basically the engines that power all the robots and self-driving cars everyone keeps promising me. They had a big showing at CES, which feels… odd. It’s a consumer electronics show. Shouldn’t they be at a conference for people who understand things like… teraflops?

Jensen Huang, the CEO, seems to be everywhere. He announced more “physical AI” plans, and something called Rubin architecture. And Alpamayo, which is apparently for training self-driving cars. Honestly, it sounds like a pasta dish. They’ve also partnered with Caterpillar. AI-powered construction equipment. I picture robots building houses. It’s either genius or deeply unsettling. Possibly both.

AMD is trying to catch up, naturally. Competition is good, I suppose. But Nvidia seems to have a pretty solid lead. The stock pulled back a bit in January, which everyone is now obsessing over. It’s like a sale on… the future. I’m trying not to panic buy.

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The Numbers (Ugh)

Revenue is up 62% year-over-year. That’s… a lot. Analysts are predicting another 63% increase next year. It’s almost suspicious. Cost of revenue is up 106%. Which means keeping up with demand is expensive. Net income is up 52%. Still good, but not quite as… explosive.

The market cap is $4.4 trillion. Which is… enormous. Doubling that would take it to $8.8 trillion. Which is almost equal to the entire U.S. stock market. Which feels… unsustainable. It’s like building a tower out of Jenga blocks. Eventually, something has to give.

The P/E ratio is 45. Which is higher than the S&P 500 average. But apparently, it should be higher, given the growth rate. It’s all very circular. I need a spreadsheet. And a strong cup of tea.

So, Should I Buy? (The Eternal Question)

Despite the size-related challenges, I think… yes. I think Nvidia is a buy. It’s the leader in AI accelerators, and that’s not going to change overnight. Maintaining 60% growth is impressive, even with a massive market cap. It’s like being a supertanker – it takes a lot to turn around.

It offers a weird combination of stability and growth. It’s big enough to be relatively safe, but still growing fast enough to deliver good returns. It’s the best of both worlds, if you can stomach the price.

Units of Cryptocurrency Lost: 12. Hours Spent Watching Charts: 9. Number of Panicked Texts to Friends: 24. Current Level of Existential Dread: High. But hey, at least I have a plan. Maybe.

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2026-01-19 22:13