Nvidia: Bubble or Genius? Investor Diary

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Dear Diary,
Let’s talk about Nvidia. (NVDA) Because nothing says “financial stability” like a stock up 1,500% in three years. My cat could’ve done better with a lemonade stand and a crypto wallet.

  • Units of Cryptocurrency Lost: 12
  • Hours Spent Watching Charts: 9
  • Number of Panicked Texts to Friends: 24

But here’s the rub: Is this a bubble, or is it genius? I’ve been staring at my screen so long my eyes look like Nvidia’s P/E ratio-wide, frantic, and slightly unhinged.

Now, I know what you’re thinking: “Bridget, why are you crying over a GPU?” Because, dear reader, Nvidia’s chips are the lifeblood of AI. It’s like saying the internet runs on Wi-Fi-and then realizing your Wi-Fi bill is now $4.4 trillion. TSMC is their fairy godmother, but if geopolitical tensions turn into a panto, we’re all singing “Oh, TSMC, wherefore art thou TSMC?” in iambic pentameter.

The “Bubbly” Bits (Spoiler: It’s Complicated)

Nvidia’s 1,500% surge is enough to make Cisco blush. Remember when Cisco’s stock was a glittering jewel in 2000? Now it’s the equivalent of finding a 2001 iPod in your sock drawer. Meanwhile, silver-yes, actual shiny bars-just broke its 1974 record. I’m not saying buy silver, I’m saying I once bought a “limited edition” Beanie Baby and that was a bigger investment.

And that market cap? $4.4 trillion. That’s not just big, it’s “I’ve redefined gravity.” To double it, they’d need to invent a new unit of measurement. Maybe call it a “Bridget.”

The price-to-book ratio? 44. That’s like paying 44 times the rent for a studio apartment in Manhattan. Palantir‘s at 70, so at least Nvidia isn’t that bad. But the S&P 500’s average is 5.5. Someone once told me 5.5 was “normal.” I’m starting to think “normal” is a myth.

Why the Bubble Talk Might Be Balderdash

But wait! Revenue’s up 62% this fiscal year. Inventories? Up 122%. That’s not just growth-it’s a stampede. And cost of goods sold? A 131% surge. It’s like trying to feed a horde of hungry vampires with a single bag of blood. But hey, net income’s still up 43% to $45 billion. Not bad for a company that probably still uses fax machines.

Forward P/E’s at 40. That’s not the stratosphere-it’s more like the upper atmosphere. And with AI’s relentless march forward, who says Nvidia can’t bring that ratio back down to Earth? (Or at least to Mars, where the valuations are more forgiving.)

Final Verdict: Bubble or Just Expensive?

Is it a bubble? Probably not. But is it overvalued? Absolutely. It’s the financial equivalent of a designer handbag: wildly expensive, slightly impractical, but somehow always in demand. The real risk isn’t the bubble-it’s the TSMC dependency. If Taiwan and China start throwing shade, Nvidia’s chips could go the way of my dating life: fragile, unpredictable, and prone to sudden collapse.

So what’s an investor to do? Hold on for the ride, but don’t forget to breathe. And maybe diversify. Because nothing says “prudent investor” like owning a little Nvidia and a hedge against geopolitical chaos. (Hint: It’s not Beanie Babies.)

Diary out. 🤔

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2025-10-17 00:16