Nvidia: A Ten Trillion Dollar Flutter?

Now, artificial intelligence, you see, is the thing. A dashedly promising development, quite. Companies are throwing coin about with a freedom that would make a Maharaja blush, all in the pursuit of being frightfully clever with these new-fangled thinking machines. A technological arms race, one might say, though thankfully without the actual arms. Rather messy things, arms.

Nvidia (NVDA), bless its silicon heart, is currently leading the charge, rather like a particularly enthusiastic schoolboy leading a conga line. They’ve cornered the market in the bits and bobs that make these digital brains tick, and as a consequence, their figures have been multiplying faster than rabbits in springtime. The stock has performed with a vigour that would make even the most seasoned investor raise an eyebrow – and perhaps adjust their waistcoat.

The question, naturally, is whether this jolly good show can continue. Is the stock, presently valued at a rather substantial $4.2 trillion, still a sound proposition? A bit like inquiring if a particularly fine port will remain drinkable after a few more years in the cellar, really.

My considered opinion, after a good deal of pondering and a restorative cup of tea, is that Nvidia will be worth a round ten trillion dollars by 2035. A bold assertion, perhaps, but let me explain, with as little technical jargon as possible. One wouldn’t want to frighten the horses.

A Once-in-a-Lifetime Opportunity, By Jove!

The chaps at Morgan Stanley, a firm not given to flights of fancy, reckon that AI could eventually create a market worth a staggering forty trillion dollars. Rather a large number, when you think about it. The continued investment from companies speaks volumes – a sort of silent, yet undeniably enthusiastic, endorsement, wouldn’t you agree?

McKinsey & Company further suggests that investments in data centres alone might exceed seven trillion dollars over the next five years. Industries are stirring, you see. Humanoid robots might soon be bustling about our homes, less clunky contraptions and more helpful companions. And self-driving vehicles may finally become less of a novelty and more of a sensible way to get from A to B without the bother of a chauffeur.

These contraptions, naturally, will require the kind of cutting-edge technology that Nvidia provides. While data centres are currently the main game, it is far from the *only* game. Nvidia, a canny firm if ever there was one, understands this perfectly and is preparing for the future with a hardware and software ecosystem designed to cater to these burgeoning industries.

One hesitates to wager against Nvidia – not while it maintains its current position. Until another company manages to wrest the crown from its head, it will likely remain the central figure in all things AI. A bit like a particularly reliable butler, always there when you need him.

Why Nvidia Might Just Keep on Growing

Growth, of course, is the key. To reach this ten trillion dollar valuation, Nvidia must continue its upward trajectory. Fortunately, the outlook appears rather propitious. Data centre spending is expected to remain buoyant, and some other rather encouraging developments are on the horizon.

The American authorities have recently given Nvidia the green light to resume selling its H20 chips to China, after some initial restrictions. A Wall Street analyst estimates this could add a further fifteen billion dollars to Nvidia’s coffers in the second half of the year. A useful boost, to say the least!

And then there’s the Rubin superchip, successor to Blackwell and Vera, Nvidia’s first custom CPU. Development has been expedited, and sample chips are expected to be shipping as early as September. If Blackwell’s performance is any indication, the leading AI companies will be queuing up to acquire these new marvels.

A Ten Trillion Dollar Stock? Let’s Have a Look

Analysts predict Nvidia will generate sales of two hundred billion dollars this year (fiscal year 2026), a remarkable 53% increase. Next year’s forecast is even more optimistic, at two hundred and fifty-three billion, implying a further 26% rise.

However, one must remain grounded in reality. Growth rates rarely remain at such dizzying heights indefinitely. The numbers become unwieldy, you see.

Let’s assume, purely for the sake of argument, that Nvidia achieves an average revenue growth of 15% per annum from fiscal years 2028 to 2030, followed by 10% per annum from 2031 to 2035:

Fiscal Year	Revenue Growth	Fiscal Year Revenue
2026	53%	$200 billion
2027	26%	$253 billion
2028	15%	$291 billion
2029	15%	$334 billion
2030	15%	$384 billion
2031	10%	$422 billion
2032	10%	$464 billion
2033	10%	$511 billion
2034	10%	$562 billion
2035	10%	$618 billion

This would see Nvidia’s revenue reach six hundred and eighteen billion dollars in fiscal year 2035, which concludes at the start of the calendar year.

The valuation? Currently, Nvidia trades at a price-to-sales ratio of 29, fluctuating between 20 and 40. To reach a ten trillion dollar valuation, the stock need only trade at just over sixteen times its estimated 2035 sales.

That appears perfectly reasonable, provided Nvidia continues to grow and maintain a sensible valuation. Only time will tell whether this prediction proves accurate, but it seems Nvidia’s story is far from over. Indeed, it appears to be shaping up to be a rather ripping yarn. 🤩

2025-08-01 12:53

A Once-in-a-Lifetime Opportunity, By Jove!

Why Nvidia Might Just Keep on Growing

A Ten Trillion Dollar Stock? Let’s Have a Look

Read More