Nvidia: A Split Decision, Eventually

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One observes, with a certain weariness, the annual speculation surrounding stock splits. ServiceNow, Netflix… these names now echo faintly in the halls of recent memory. Investors, ever hopeful, search for patterns, for clues, as if the market were a poorly written novel, ripe for decipherment. Nvidia, of course, is the current object of their scrutiny. The stock has risen, naturally. It always does, for a time. Seventy-eight percent in eighteen months. A respectable climb, though one suspects the air grows thin at such altitudes.

The question of another split hangs in the air, a minor irritation. Management, one assumes, has more pressing concerns than catering to the whims of those who believe a larger number of shares equates to greater wealth. Still, it is worth examining the history. Nvidia has split its stock six times since its inception, a habit not entirely unlike a nervous tick. Microsoft, with nine splits, appears positively frantic. A company’s past behavior, however, is seldom a reliable predictor of its future composure.

A Familiar Ritual

The 2024 split, a ten-for-one affair, feels distant now, a fleeting moment of manufactured excitement. Before that, the shares traded around $1,200. A substantial sum, certainly. And before that, the pattern repeated, endlessly. One wonders if the accountants themselves don’t sigh with resignation each time the paperwork begins anew.

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The illusion, of course, is that a split somehow alters the fundamental value of the company. It does not. It is merely a cosmetic change, a rearrangement of the same pieces on the board. To believe otherwise is to succumb to a childish fantasy. And yet, the belief persists. People cling to these small comforts, these illusions of control, in a world that offers precious little of either.

The Delusion of Advantage

The earnest conviction that acquiring more shares at a lower price somehow confers an advantage is particularly amusing. It is akin to believing that dividing a loaf of bread into smaller slices magically increases its size. A veteran investor recognizes this folly, of course. They have seen these cycles repeat themselves countless times. They understand that the market is not a rational actor, but a collection of hopes and fears, of anxieties and delusions.

The current price, around $185, with a recent high of $212, suggests that another split is unlikely, at least for the moment. The company has no urgent need to make its shares more “accessible.” Those who wish to invest will find a way. Those who do not will find an excuse. It is always thus.

A Reasonable Expectation?

Whether to “load up” on Nvidia stock now is, as always, a matter of speculation. The company stands at the forefront of the AI revolution, a position that guarantees a certain level of attention, and a certain degree of inflated valuation. The free cash flow is impressive – $61.7 billion in the first nine months of 2025 – but such figures rarely tell the whole story.

The price-to-earnings ratio of 42.5 is hardly a bargain, though it is a slight improvement over the five-year average of 65. One suspects, however, that the true value of the company remains elusive, obscured by the hype and the speculation. Perhaps a good time to buy? Perhaps not. In the grand scheme of things, it hardly matters. The market will continue to fluctuate, driven by forces beyond our control. And Nvidia, like all companies, will eventually succumb to the inevitable forces of entropy. It is a melancholy truth, but a truth nonetheless.

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2026-02-11 02:22