Nvidia: A Calculated Risk (and My Anxiety)

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Right. Nvidia. It’s… complicated. Shares have gone up, like, a lot since January 2023 – 1200%, apparently. Which is good, I suppose, if you’d invested then. I didn’t. I was busy alphabetizing my spice rack and worrying about the structural integrity of my houseplants. Priorities, you know?

So, I’ve been trying to figure out where this all goes. Wall Street analysts have opinions, naturally. It’s their job to have opinions. And to be completely, utterly wrong sometimes. Here’s a little list I made, just to keep track of the madness:

  • The Optimists: Mark Lipacis at Evercore thinks Nvidia is a buy. Target price: $352. That’s… ambitious. 83% upside. I’m not sure I’ve ever felt 83% about anything, frankly.
  • The Pessimists: Jay Goldberg at Seaport Research recommends selling. $140 a share. 27% downside. Honestly, I feel a little bit like that already.

It’s all very…stressful. I’ve started drinking herbal tea. It doesn’t really help, but it feels…responsible.

The Bull Case: Apparently, It Could Go Up

Nvidia makes these things called GPUs – graphics processing units. They’re apparently crucial for all this AI stuff, which is the buzzword of the moment. They’re like the brains of the operation, or something. Apparently, they have about 85% of the market share, which sounds…dominant. And they’re not just making the chips themselves, they’re building entire systems, which is like…owning the whole bakery, not just making the croissants. Smart.

They also have this “full-stack strategy,” which sounds terrifyingly complicated. It basically means they control everything from the hardware to the software, so they can optimize it all for maximum efficiency. It’s like…Marie Kondo-ing your entire data center. Very thorough.

The Evercore analyst, Mark Lipacis, thinks this moat – yes, they actually call it a moat – will help them stay ahead of the game. And he thinks they’ll be big winners in the autonomous vehicle and robotics revolution. Which is good, because I’m slightly terrified of self-driving cars. Maybe if Nvidia is in charge, they won’t try to kill me.

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The Bear Case: It Could All Come Crashing Down

Jay Goldberg at Seaport Research thinks custom AI chips are the problem. Apparently, Alphabet’s TPUs are giving Nvidia a run for its money. And Meta and Anthropic are spending billions on them. Billions! It’s enough to make one consider a career in basket weaving.

But Nvidia says these custom chips lack prebuilt software tools. Which means developers have to build everything from scratch. And apparently, that’s really hard. Jensen Huang, the Nvidia CEO, says there aren’t many teams in the world who are capable of it. Which is… reassuring, in a way. It means I’m not the only one struggling with complicated tasks.

Goldberg also thinks Nvidia’s margins will be pressured. Apparently, high bandwidth memory chips are getting really expensive. And Nvidia is committing $26 billion to cloud capacity. It’s a lot of money. I spent $18 on organic avocados this week and I’m still recovering.

He raises valid points, I suppose. But I’m not entirely convinced. The valuation of 47 times earnings seems reasonable, given the projected growth rate. And honestly, I’m feeling a little bit bullish. Maybe it’s the herbal tea.

My Prediction: A Moderate Increase (and a Lot of Anxiety)

Okay, deep breaths. I think Nvidia will trade at $260 per share by December 2026. That’s about a 35% upside from the current price. It’s a compromise between the optimistic and pessimistic scenarios. And it feels…safe. Relatively speaking, of course.

Goldman Sachs strategists say analysts have underestimated AI capital expenditures for the past two years. Which suggests there’s still room for growth. And Jensen Huang says autonomous machines are the next frontier. Which is… exciting, and also slightly terrifying. I keep picturing robots taking over the world.

But Waymo and Tesla are deploying more robotaxis this year. Which means Nvidia’s products are being used in real-world applications. And that’s… encouraging. It means I might not have wasted my time researching this after all.

Units of Cryptocurrency Lost: 0. Hours Spent Watching Charts: 12. Number of Panicked Texts to Friends: 18. Will become disciplined long-term investor: Unlikely.

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2026-01-31 11:42