NVDA & TSM: Long-Term Holds (Maybe)

Right. So, the market. Still going up. It’s been going up for years, which feels… unsettling. Like, when does it stop? Am I supposed to be ecstatic? I’m trying to be a sensible, long-term investor, honestly, but it’s hard when everything feels a bit… bubbly. Anyway, the current obsession is growth stocks, apparently. Which, fine. Let’s investigate. I’ve narrowed it down to two, and I’m trying not to overthink it. Too much. This is my attempt at rational financial planning. Wish me luck.

Nvidia: The AI Thing

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Nvidia (NVDA +8.63%). It’s… everywhere. Everyone’s talking about it. AI, apparently. Which I mostly understand as complicated algorithms and a lot of hype. But the numbers are, admittedly, impressive. Revenue up 62% last quarter. Which is good, obviously. But it’s the jump from three years ago – nearly ten times growth! – that’s really rather startling. It’s like watching a small plant suddenly become a redwood. A very profitable redwood.

They’re not just about graphics cards anymore (although those are still important, I gather). It’s the networking side that’s really taking off – 162% revenue growth! Which is… a lot. They’re basically offering complete AI “factories” – chips, networking, the whole shebang. Which is clever. Hyperscalers (those people with enormous data centers) are scrambling to keep up, and Nvidia is positioning itself as the solution. They’ve even acquired talent from Groq and are licensing technology, which sounds… sophisticated. I’m starting to feel inadequate just writing this.

Units of Self-Doubt Acquired: 7. Hours Spent Googling “Hyperscaler”: 2. Number of Times I’ve Considered Just Putting All My Money in Chocolate: 3.

Still, the stock seems… solid. Long-term buy, maybe. If I can bring myself to actually hold onto it, that is. My track record isn’t exactly stellar.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing: The Chip Maker

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Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM +5.69%). This is… crucial, apparently. They make the chips. For Nvidia, and everyone else. It’s like they’re the secret ingredient in the whole AI revolution. And they’re doing very well. Revenue up nearly 32% last year, margins expanding, earnings per share jumping 46%. It’s… alarming, frankly. All that growth. What could possibly go wrong?

They’re the only foundry that can reliably produce these advanced chips at scale. Which gives them… leverage. They can raise prices, expand capacity, basically dictate terms. And they’re doing just that. Ramping up capital expenditure, building more factories, and apparently planning a four-year price-hike schedule. It’s… bold. And probably very sensible, if you’re them.

Number of Times I’ve Considered Becoming a Chip Manufacturing Tycoon: 1. Probability of Success: Approximately Zero.

With AI still in its early stages and data center spending continuing to climb, TSMC seems like a relatively safe bet. Long-term hold, potentially. Although, of course, nothing is ever truly safe, is it? It’s all just… probabilities and hope, really.

List of Things I Need to Research Further: Global Semiconductor Supply Chains, Geopolitical Risks, The Meaning of Life. Current Progress: Minimal.

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2026-02-06 23:54