So, here we are. Two companies, both chasing the sun, or maybe just a little bit of it. NuScale Power (SMR +6.75%) and Plug Power (PLUG +3.53%). Investing, you see, is often about picking which beautiful disaster will unfold a little more slowly. A little less expensively.
NuScale’s Slow Burn
NuScale, bless their hearts, is currently making money the old-fashioned way: by asking for it. Engineering fees, licensing. It’s a start. The actual reactors? Well, those aren’t exactly rolling off the assembly line. We’re looking at 2029, or later. It’s a long time to wait for a return. Time, of course, is a flat circle.
They’ve got a healthy $753.8 million in cash, which, in the grand scheme of things, is a rounding error. But enough, they hope, to get those reactors built. No debt, though. That’s something. Like finding a dry sock in a flood.
The NRC certification is the key, of course. A moat, they call it. It’s a bureaucratic fortress, really. Keeps the riff-raff out. The stock is down, near its 52-week low. But what isn’t, these days? So it goes.
Plug’s Perpetual Motion Machine
Plug, on the other hand, is doing things. Revenue of $484 million through the first three quarters of 2025. Impressive, until you realize they’re also burning cash at a rate that suggests they’re trying to heat the atmosphere.
“Project Quantum Leap.” A good name. Sounds like a science fiction movie. The idea is to cut expenses, improve margins, and eventually, maybe, turn a profit. It’s a noble goal. Like trying to bail out the ocean with a teaspoon.
They’ve doubled the number of shares outstanding. A dilution, they call it. A fancy word for spreading the pie thinner. Still, they believe they’re on track. Hope springs eternal, even in the face of overwhelming evidence to the contrary.
The Least Worst Option
In this particular contest of hopeful folly, I’m leaning towards NuScale. The NRC certification is real. A solid customer pipeline exists, on paper at least. And that balance sheet, while not exactly flush, isn’t actively bleeding. Plug has had too many missteps. Too much chasing of a future that may or may not arrive.
Hydrogen‘s role in powering AI? A question for the philosophers. Nuclear, for all its problems, has a clearer path. A longer history. A certain inevitability.
Ultimately, both of these are long shots. Investing often is. You pick the one you think will disappoint you the least. And then you brace yourself. So it goes.
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2026-02-25 01:12