Okay, let’s talk NuScale Power (SMR 0.28%). This isn’t your grandfather’s nuclear fission, folks. This is… something else. A SPAC baby, birthed into the market in 2022, briefly flashed a supernova of hype – $53.43! – before crashing back to Earth around the $14 mark. A classic boom-and-bust cycle. The kind that keeps analysts employed and me reaching for another cup of coffee. They’re peddling small modular reactors (SMRs), these little nukes that are supposed to solve all our energy problems. Supposed to.
The problem? They haven’t actually sold one. Not a single, functioning, power-generating reactor. It’s all promise, potential, and a market cap of $4.04 billion. FORTY TIMES their projected 2026 sales. That’s… ambitious. Insane, maybe. It’s like betting the farm on a horse that hasn’t left the stable. The question isn’t whether NuScale can grow into this valuation, it’s whether it can survive the next ten years without imploding into a radioactive mess. A financial Chernobyl, if you will.
How Does This Thing Even Work?
These SMRs, they’re supposed to be different. Smaller, easier to build, cheaper. They claim you can practically slap ’em together. 65 feet high, nine feet wide. Prefabricated, modular… sounds suspiciously like a trailer park for nuclear energy. They’ve got the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s blessing – Standard Design Approvals, the NRC calls them. Sounds official, doesn’t it? But let’s not forget that ambitious Idaho project, the one that went belly-up amidst skyrocketing costs. A cautionary tale, people. A blinking red warning light.
Right now, NuScale is mostly a subcontractor for Fluor (FLR +2.86%), working on a plant in Romania. RoPower, they call it. Still in the “front-end engineering and design” phase. Meaning, they’re drawing blueprints and hoping someone actually funds the damn thing. A final investment decision is due this year. Let’s see if anyone’s willing to gamble on this particular long shot.
Ten Years From Now: Glowing Prospects or a Cold Fusion Fantasy?
The hype machine is churning. Two potential catalysts, they say. The Romanian project might finally get off the ground. And they’ve got a deal with the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) for up to six gigawatts of capacity across seven states. Sounds impressive, doesn’t it? But let’s be real. They originally promised reactors in Romania by 2027-2028. Now it’s 2030, at the optimistic end. Some analysts are whispering 2033-2034. The TVA reactors? Don’t hold your breath before 2032. This isn’t progress, it’s a slow-motion drift into the abyss.
Until then, NuScale will likely be living off FEED study fees. That means drawing up plans and collecting checks. Unprofitable. Diluting shares with secondary offerings. A vicious cycle. The stock could, theoretically, skyrocket by 2036 if they actually manage to activate reactors in Romania and the U.S. But let’s be clear: this is a speculative play. A high-stakes gamble. A financial fever dream. Invest at your own peril. And maybe keep a Geiger counter handy.
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2026-02-18 20:02