Nu: The Expanding Bureaucracy

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Nu Holdings (NU 0.53%) entered 2025 not as a challenger, but as a symptom. A growing, self-replicating system, initially presented as disruption, now solidifies into something…else. It is no longer a question of whether it will become a bank, but rather, what form of bank it will ultimately be – a question that seems, increasingly, to answer itself.

The reports speak of growth, of profitability. These are merely the outward manifestations of an internal process, a relentless expansion of procedures and regulations, all operating with a logic that remains, to the observer, profoundly opaque. The numbers are not achievements, but data points in a larger, inscrutable calculation.

The Illusion of Profit

For years, the skeptics, those clinging to the antiquated notion of “sustainable” banking, demanded proof of profitability. In 2025, Nu provided it, not as a triumph over economic laws, but as an inevitable consequence of its own internal momentum. Revenue reached $3.7 billion in the second quarter, then $4.2 billion – figures that appear significant only until one considers the sheer volume of paperwork, the endless processing of requests, the constant reassessment of risk, all contributing to this upward curve. A 28% return on equity, then 31% – these are not signs of health, but of a system operating at maximum efficiency, consuming and producing with equal indifference.

The efficiency is not a virtue, but a condition. It is as if the bank exists not to serve its customers, but to justify its own existence, to perpetuate a cycle of transactions that has become divorced from any discernible purpose. It is a machine, and we are merely components within it.

The Lending Engine: A Perpetual Motion Machine

The loan book expanded to over $27 billion, then $30 billion. The growth is impressive, certainly, but it is also… unsettling. It is as if the bank creates its own demand, identifying needs that did not previously exist, then offering solutions that inevitably lead to further indebtedness. Delinquency ratios remain “manageable,” but this is not a cause for celebration. It is merely an indication that the system is functioning as intended, absorbing and neutralizing any potential disruptions.

The underwriting discipline is not a safeguard against risk, but a mechanism for controlling it, for ensuring that the system remains stable, even as the underlying conditions deteriorate. It is a delicate balancing act, a constant calibration of probabilities, all conducted within the confines of an increasingly complex and bureaucratic structure.

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Deepening Relationships: The Web Tightens

The user base reached 127 million. Activity rates remain high, but the focus has shifted. No longer content with merely acquiring customers, Nu now seeks to “deepen relationships.” This is not a matter of providing better service, but of extracting more value. Average revenue per active customer climbed to $13 per month, while mature cohorts generate nearly $27. The gap is not an opportunity, but a measure of the system’s efficiency, its ability to exploit every possible avenue for profit.

The empire expands not outward, but inward, drawing sustenance from its own constituent parts. It is a self-contained ecosystem, isolated from the external world, operating according to its own internal logic. The more we participate, the more we become entangled in its web.

Global Ambitions: The Bureaucracy Extends Its Reach

The exploration of a shift in legal domicile to the United Kingdom, the preparations for a U.S. presence, the investment in Tyme Group – these are not strategic moves, but acts of expansion, the inevitable consequence of a system driven by its own internal momentum. It seeks not to conquer new markets, but to replicate itself, to extend its reach into every corner of the globe.

The focus on emerging markets is not altruistic. It is a matter of expediency, a recognition that these regions offer less resistance, fewer regulations, and a greater potential for exploitation. The bureaucracy does not seek to improve the lives of the unbanked. It seeks to incorporate them into its system, to absorb them into its ever-expanding network.

What Does It Mean?

Nu Holdings has transitioned from a high-growth disruptor to an emerging banking powerhouse. Profitability has strengthened, lending has expanded, customer monetization has improved, and international ambitions have moved from concept to concrete steps. But these are merely symptoms, outward manifestations of a deeper, more unsettling trend.

Risks remain, of course. Consumer credit in emerging markets can turn quickly, and regulatory oversight will intensify as Nu becomes more systemically important. But these are merely obstacles to be overcome, challenges to be met. The bureaucracy will adapt, it will evolve, it will find a way to perpetuate itself, regardless of the consequences.

For long-term investors, 2025 signals not the beginning of a larger ambition, but the consolidation of an inescapable reality. The system is no longer merely building a financial infrastructure. It is becoming the infrastructure itself.

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2026-02-28 15:52