Novo Nordisk (NVO). The Danish miracle, the purveyors of manufactured desire, the Ozempic/Wegovy MACHINE… it’s cratering. A full-blown, technicolor meltdown. Thirty-one percent down the drain since last week’s earnings report. A week ago they *assured* us everything was copacetic. A goddamn LIE. And now? Now it’s just a slow, sickening spiral into the swirling vortex of market panic. You can practically *smell* the fear.
This latest gut punch courtesy of UBS. UBS. Those gray-flannel suits shuffling papers and deciding fates…the vultures.
UBS Issues a Dire Warning
Matthew Weston, a name I’ll be filing away for future reference (and possibly retribution), just slapped a ‘Neutral’ rating on Novo, downgraded from ‘Buy.’ A target price of $52.77. Pathetic. A face-saving gesture. Weston, operating on some informant’s whisper, is suddenly concerned about the compound pharmacies. The back-alley apothecaries churning out cheap Ozempic knockoffs. Novo dismissed them as an insignificant irritant. Weston? He thinks it’s a goddamn epidemic. And he’s probably right. The sharks are circling, sensing weakness.
“Expert channel checks,” he says. ‘Channel checks.’ Sounds like some kind of black market operation. Apparently, these “checks” reveal the compounding labs aren’t going anywhere. This means the cash-pay uptake will be… limited. Limited! Which translates to: profits aren’t going to EXPLODE like they promised. And let’s not forget the looming specter of Eli Lilly (NYSE: LLY), steadily encroaching on Novo’s territory with their own miracle drugs. Mounjaro, the name itself is a threat. A creeping, insidious threat.
Buy the Dip? Maybe. Probably. But Still…
Okay, okay, Weston’s still valuing Novo above its current price – hovering around $47. Still a believer, deep down. And the P/E ratio is a tempting 14. Cheap. Dangerously cheap. But don’t let the numbers lull you into a false sense of security. This isn’t a straightforward valuation play. This is a high-stakes game of perception, of momentum, of pure, unadulterated speculation.
Growth is slowing. From a blistering 18% in the first half to a projected 6% in the second. That still leaves us with a respectable 12% annual growth rate, IF you buy their projections. Factor in the 3.3% dividend, and you’re looking at potentially 15% total return. Which, on paper, is a perfectly reasonable argument for diving in. But paper doesn’t account for the VICIOUSNESS of the market. It doesn’t account for the herd mentality. It doesn’t account for the fact that we are all, ultimately, at the mercy of forces beyond our control.
Look, the share price is falling. And when something is falling, there’s always a temptation to catch it. A perverse, irresistible urge. I’m still leaning towards a buy… but with the caveat that this is less an investment strategy and more an embrace of the chaos. It’s a gamble. A reckless, beautiful, potentially catastrophic gamble. 😈
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2025-08-06 04:28