Nike: A Ten-Year Slouch

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Nike. The name hung in the air like a persistent cough. Everyone knew it. Recognized the swoosh like a fingerprint. For decades, they’d been the king of the hill in sportswear. A global empire built on rubber soles and celebrity endorsements. But empires, I’d learned, have a habit of crumbling. And this one? It was looking distinctly…tired.

The stock, currently nursing a 56% loss over the last five years, wasn’t exactly setting the world on fire. The question wasn’t whether Nike could hit $100 again. It was whether it had the stomach for the fight. The street wanted a miracle. I dealt in probabilities, and the odds were stacked against a quick recovery.

Patience, A Luxury Few Can Afford

They talked about a 56% gain from the current price of $64. A nice round number, easy to swallow. But the all-time high, a fleeting $166 back in November 2021, felt like a forgotten dream. Shares were down 64% from that peak. Optimism was in short supply. I figured, maybe, just maybe, a few years down the line, they’d claw their way back to the century mark. Best case scenario. Hope, like a cheap suit, rarely lasts.

The Turnaround: A Slow Bleed

The new leadership team was trying to jumpstart growth. A noble effort, like trying to polish a tarnished reputation. Competition was fierce, especially in running. They’d lost their edge, the spark that once set them apart. Product innovation had stalled. And they’d alienated wholesale accounts during the e-commerce boom, a strategic blunder that was now coming back to haunt them.

Analysts predicted less than 1% revenue growth for fiscal 2026. Earnings per share were expected to fall by 28%. Tariffs were eating into profits, adding another $1.5 billion to the cost of doing business. The numbers didn’t lie. They told a story of stagnation and mounting pressure.

CEO Elliott Hill was focused on top-line growth. A sensible approach. Profits, he hoped, would follow. But hope, as I’d said, was a fragile thing.

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The Brand: A Fading Halo

Nike’s advantage, if you could still call it that, was its sheer scale. $12.4 billion in Q2 2026 sales gave them a leg up. It allowed them to spend $1.3 billion on marketing – “demand creation expense,” they called it – a fancy term for throwing money at the problem. Sponsoring leagues, endorsing athletes like LeBron James and Cristiano Ronaldo. Brand visibility. It was a costly game, and the returns were diminishing.

That visibility bought them time. In this business, time was the most valuable commodity. It allowed them to weather the storm, to regroup, to reinvent themselves. But even empires eventually fall. The question wasn’t if, but when. Still, it wasn’t a stretch to think they could right the ship. For patient investors, maybe. But patience, like a clean conscience, was becoming increasingly rare.

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2026-02-11 17:02