Behold, the tale of Nextracker (NXT), that most peculiar of enterprises, whose solar tracking systems-mechanical sun-worshippers, if you will-have ascended from the humble price of 24 rubles per share on February 8, 2023, to a gilded 73. A journey fueled by the feverish solar market, where bookings, margins, and profits danced like drunken revelers in a tavern. Yet the question lingers: shall we, dear investor, partake in this celestial feast?
Let us dissect this enigma. Nextracker, the titan of solar tracking, commands 26% of the market, a crown wrested from the likes of Arctech Solar and Array Technologies. Its systems, like diligent scribes, orient panels to the sun’s whims, boosting energy output by 15-25%. A boon for the sun-blessed, from the Southwest U.S. to the deserts of India. But what of the future? Let us proceed.
From fiscal 2022 to 2025, revenue swelled at 27% CAGR, a veritable avalanche of dollars. Adjusted EBITDA, that elusive beast, leapt 103%, its margin soaring from 6.3% to 26.2%. GAAP net income, once 50.9 million, now a tenfold titan of 509.2 million. What drives this metamorphosis? Cheaper solar modules, decarbonization mandates, and policies as generous as a beggar’s offering. A perfect storm of growth.
Goldman Sachs whispers of a 57% surge in global solar power by 2030, while Markets and Markets forecasts a 17.3% CAGR for solar trackers. Nextracker, ever the alchemist, has acquired Onsight Technology, SenseHawk’s IP, and Amir Robotics-each a curious addition to its menagerie. Even Origami Solar, a producer of solar panel frames, now bows to its will. Yet, with a backlog of 4.75 billion, the specter of margin compression looms, as if the gods of finance have grown weary of its triumphs.
Analysts foresee 12% and 8% CAGRs for revenue and EBITDA through 2028. A steady march, though perhaps not as brisk as the market’s fevered dreams. Nextracker’s acquisitions, like a scribe’s endless scrolls, suggest a business nearing maturity. A curious paradox: a company that once devoured its rivals now seems to gnaw at its own tail.
With an enterprise value of 9.72 billion, Nextracker trades at 12 times next year’s adjusted EBITDA-a price not unreasonable, though its rival Array, a mere 5 times its own EBITDA, has seen its empire shrink. A tale of two titans, one ascending, the other receding. Yet, as the solar market expands, Nextracker’s niche remains a beacon. A prudent investor might yet purchase its stock, though with the caution of a man approaching a bureaucratic maze with no exit.
So, dear reader, shall we gamble on the sun’s favor? The answer lies in the stars-or, more likely, in the fine print of a prospectus. 🌞
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2025-09-28 14:52