Newmont: Gold, Gloom, and a Very Long March

Right. So, Newmont. It’s been…a day. Or rather, a continuation of a slightly worrying March. The world’s largest gold miner, Newmont Corporation (NEM 3.08%), decided to have a bit of a tumble this morning – nearly 5%, if you’re counting (and, let’s be honest, I always seem to be counting these days). That’s an 18% drop this month. Eighteen! It’s enough to make one consider a career change. Perhaps alpaca farming. They seem…less volatile.

Is this a buying opportunity? Honestly, that’s what everyone always asks, isn’t it? Like there’s some magical signal. I’ve been trying to decode the market for years. It feels like trying to understand a particularly moody teenager.

Why the Dip? (A Brief, Possibly Inaccurate, Explanation)

Turns out, gold itself decided to have a little lie-down. Down 2.5%, slipping below $2,000 an ounce. Apparently, investors are getting jittery about the Federal Reserve potentially keeping interest rates high for longer. Sticky inflation, rising oil prices…it’s all rather a lot. And oil! It jumped over 5% today. Honestly, it feels like everything is just…jumping. Up, down, sideways. It’s exhausting.

The Fed’s announcement is on March 18th. I’ve set a reminder. Several reminders. And the Producer Price Index for February was higher than expected. Numbers. So many numbers. They swim before my eyes.

High interest rates aren’t great for gold, you see. It’s a bit like a complicated relationship. The more one thing goes up, the other tends to go down. And Newmont, having had a rather good run – more than doubling in value over the past year – was ripe for a bit of profit-taking. Which, let’s face it, is what people always do.

Units of Newmont Shares Considered: 100. Hours Spent Refreshing the Portfolio: 4. Number of Times I’ve Considered Selling Everything and Moving to a Desert Island: 6. (It’s a work in progress.)

So, What Does One Do Now? (A Highly Subjective Opinion)

Everyone’s offloading Newmont, and the urge to join the stampede is…strong. Very strong. But I’m trying to resist. I’m telling myself to breathe. To remember that panic rarely leads to sensible decisions. (Although, let’s be honest, sensible decisions are often overrated.) Instead, I’m telling myself this might be a chance to pick up some shares of a fairly resilient gold miner.

Newmont generated a record $7.3 billion in free cash flow in 2023 (yes, I checked) and used $3.4 billion each to repay debt and return to shareholders. That’s…responsible. Which is a surprisingly rare quality these days. They’re also committed to growing dividends and maintaining a minimum cash balance of $5 billion. Which, in the volatile world of precious metals, feels…comforting. Like having a really good raincoat.

Will become disciplined long-term investor. (It’s on the list.)

2026-03-18 20:07

Why the Dip? (A Brief, Possibly Inaccurate, Explanation)

So, What Does One Do Now? (A Highly Subjective Opinion)

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