Netflix’s WBD Deal Faces Growing Doubt

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As a huge movie fan, I’ve been following the potential Netflix and Warner Bros. Discovery deal closely, and it’s looking less likely to happen now. It seems like Paramount and Skydance are making a strong push with their own offer, and they’re apparently backing it up with some solid financial commitments. Things are really heating up and it’s throwing the whole negotiation into question!

Netflix Odds Slide on Polymarket

I’ve been following the buzz around a possible Netflix and Warner Bros. Discovery merger, and it seems things are looking less likely now. I check Polymarket, which is this cool platform where people predict real-world events, and the odds of a deal actually happening have dropped quite a bit recently. It’s a fascinating way to gauge what people are thinking!

Traders are now less confident that Microsoft will acquire Netflix. The probability of the deal happening has dropped from 80% to 61% in just a few days, suggesting increasing doubt.

Similarly, the Kalshi app currently gives Netflix a 53% chance of acquiring Warner Bros., while Paramount’s chances have increased to 44%.

This change is happening because other offers are becoming more attractive, and people are starting to question the price and how the deal is set up.

Ellison Guarantees Billions for Rival Offer

After the Warner Bros. Discovery board raised concerns, Paramount revealed in a regulatory filing that Larry Ellison has personally guaranteed funding for the rival offer.

According to a recent filing, Larry Ellison has personally guaranteed $40.4 billion in equity funding for the deal and will also cover any potential damage claims against Paramount.

This development boosts the proposal supported by Ellison and puts more pressure on Warner Bros. Discovery’s board as they consider their options.

WBD Board Said to Favor Netflix Structure

Charles Gasparino, a business reporter for the New York Post, reports that some people familiar with the situation think Warner Bros. Discovery might still prefer Netflix’s deal, even with Larry Ellison’s commitment.

According to Gasparino, Netflix’s offer involves extra value from a potential spin-off of its cable assets, creating a new public company that would include CNN and Discovery.

I’m hearing that Warner Bros. Discovery is currently valuing the remaining shares after the deal at about $4 each. When you factor that in, it basically means we’re getting close to $32 a share for Netflix – which is fantastic news for us as supporters!

The Ellison group believes Netflix’s current price is too high, suggesting a fair price is no more than $2 per share. Despite this, they’ve indicated they might increase their offer by as much as 10% and are prepared to pay any fees if Netflix has to end another deal as a result.

Bidding War Limits in Sight

According to Gasparino, Netflix has boundaries regarding how much it’s willing to do, particularly considering its recent stock struggles.

According to sources at Warner Bros. Discovery, if the offer from Ryan Ellison increases to around $35 billion, the company would have to strongly consider changing its plans.

Because there are several competing offers and people are losing confidence in the market, it’s increasingly unclear what will happen with the Warner Bros. Discovery deal.

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2025-12-22 22:02