The stock’s ascent, a spring thaw after a long winter, has seen a 393% surge, its growth a symphony of AI’s hunger for data centers. Like a sapling in a forest of giants, Nebius Group (NBIS) has stretched its roots, nourished by the sun of technological fervor.
On the eve of September 9, the stock surged, as if stirred by a breeze of fortune, after the announcement of a multiyear pact with Microsoft (MSFT). A river of capital, it seemed, had found its tributary.
The Microsoft pact: A forest of opportunity
Nebius, a sentinel of the digital realm, offers a full-stack sanctuary for AI, its GPUs like the sturdy oaks of the data forest. Customers, like foragers, gather tokens to craft their own digital harvests-Llama, DeepSeek, Stability AI-each a fruit of innovation. The market, a vast meadow, blooms with promise: Goldman Sachs whispers of a $580 billion IaaS meadow by 2030, while PaaS, another field, brims with $600 billion.
Nebius, a weaver of clouds, allows users to expand or contract their digital looms. Microsoft, a titan with a backlog of $368 billion, has chosen Nebius as its steward, offering a contract of at least $17.4 billion-a pact spanning years, its value a mountain of billions. Should Microsoft’s thirst for capacity grow, the sum may swell to $19.4 billion, a flood of capital.
The deal, a seed planted in New Jersey’s soil, will bear fruit in tranches, as Nebius funds its growth with the proceeds. Management, like a gardener, speaks of financing options to accelerate growth, their hands eager to prune and nurture.
The coming bloom
Though small, Nebius bears the weight of $250 million in revenue, a seedling in the forest of giants. Yet its growth, a wildfire, has surged 545% in six months. By year’s end, its annualized run-rate may reach $1 billion-a sapling reaching for the sky.
Microsoft’s share of Nebius’s future remains a riddle. If the $19.4 billion is split evenly, the company may harvest $4 billion annually from one patron. Add to this Nebius’s plan to expand its data centers fivefold by 2028, a forest of 1 gigawatt, and the vision becomes clear: a tree of revenue, its branches reaching for the stars.
At 8.5 times sales, Nebius’s market cap could swell to $60 billion, a forest of value. Yet the tale is not yet complete. Microsoft, a titan with a parched throat, may yet return, its thirst unquenched.
To the activist, Nebius is not merely a stock but a vessel of potential, its trajectory a testament to the alchemy of vision and timing. The future, a seed yet to sprout, waits in the soil of possibility. 🌱
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2025-09-12 11:44