Nebius Group (NBIS +8.00%) had, it appears, ambitions. One always wonders about ambitions, doesn’t one? They are so easily… diluted. The company, engaged in the construction of cloud infrastructure for these new artificial intelligences, has exceeded its projected revenue for the end of 2025. This, naturally, has caused a stir in the market, a brief, flickering enthusiasm. Shares are up, as of noon today, by a respectable 8.2%.
They spoke last year, these bright young men and women at Nebius, of a revenue run rate of $1.1 billion by the close of 2025. A bold figure, perhaps, but one they have, it seems, managed to surpass. $1.25 billion, they report. A triumph, certainly. Though one can’t help but wonder if such numbers truly capture the weight of things, the quiet disappointments that inevitably accumulate.
Their projections for 2026 are, if anything, even more ambitious. A sevenfold increase in that rate. One pictures them, these planners, charting their course on a map, oblivious to the storms that gather on the horizon. They anticipate exceeding 3 gigawatts of contracted compute capacity. Demand, they say, is strong. It always is, for a time.
The market, of course, had already priced in a good deal of this optimism. Shares tripled last year, a rather breathless ascent. The company now boasts a market capitalization of around $25 billion. A considerable sum. One suspects, however, that much of this is simply… expectation. A collective imagining of what might be. The cloud, it is true, is in demand. But demand, like everything else, is subject to the vagaries of time and circumstance.
As the year unfolds, it will be necessary to observe whether this momentum can be sustained. Whether the demand continues, or whether it begins to wane. Whether Nebius can truly deliver on its promises. It is, after all, a precarious thing, this building of empires on the shifting sands of technology. The stock may continue to rise, or it may not. It is difficult to say. Life, as they say, goes on. And the market, with its endless fluctuations, simply reflects the quiet desperation of us all.
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2026-02-13 20:13