Nebius: A Bullet Through the Fog

The stock of Nebius Group danced like a moth in a hurricane for most of 2025. It wasn’t the kind of dance you’d find in a ballroom. No, this was a jittery shuffle in the dark, waiting for the lights to flicker. The company’s future was a promise wrapped in a question mark, and investors were betting on a ghost. But ghosts don’t pay dividends.

Last month’s second-quarter report was a bullet through a paper target. Management didn’t just tweak numbers-they blew them out of the water. Shares didn’t just rise; they sprinted like a cheetah with a tailwind. S&P Global Market Intelligence says Nebius stock climbed 25.5% in August. That’s not a rally. That’s a stampede.

But the market’s a fickle lover. Recent days have seen a retreat, a slow waltz back into the shadows. For the opportunistic, it’s a bargain basement window. For the cynical, it’s just another day in the casino.

Revenue Forecasts: A Jackhammer in a China Shop

In 2024, Nebius raked in $117.5 million. That’s enough to buy a few server racks and a decent bottle of bourbon. But management? They’re thinking bigger. They told investors to expect annualized revenue of $750 million to $1 billion by year-end. That’s not growth. That’s a jackhammer in a china shop. And they raised the bet after the Q2 report. Now it’s $900 million to $1.1 billion. The stock? A champagne cork on a rollercoaster.

Numbers like these don’t grow on trees. They grow in boardrooms with bloodshot eyes and caffeine addiction. But here’s the kicker: if they hit $250 million in quarterly sales by 2025, it’ll be a miracle. Or a con. Investors will decide which.

Too Late to Ride the Wave?

Cash is king, and Nebius has $1.68 billion in the vault. That’s not a king’s ransom. That’s a king’s insurance policy. They also raised $1 billion in convertible notes this summer-a financial Hail Mary. You don’t do that unless you’re planning to build something. Big. Ugly. Profitable.

Their data centers are spreading like a virus. Finland, the U.S., Israel, the U.K.-they’re quadrupling capacity by 2026. It’s a madman’s blueprint, but then again, the AI gold rush isn’t for the faint of heart. Expansion costs money. Growth costs more. But the payoff? A kingdom of data-or a pyramid scheme with better lighting.

At $15 billion, the company’s valuation smells like a poker game with loaded dice. 2025 sales? A rounding error. The real test is whether Nebius can keep this engine running without catching fire. AI’s still in its infancy. That’s the joke. The punchline? We’ll write it when the smoke clears. 📈

2025-09-03 17:33

Revenue Forecasts: A Jackhammer in a China Shop

Too Late to Ride the Wave?

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