Nasdaq-100: Just How High Can Hubris Take Us?

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Right, so, 2024. Everyone was terribly pleased with themselves, weren’t they? The Nasdaq-100 kept hitting these… optimistic milestones. But honestly? It felt a bit… precarious. Like a tower built of very expensive Lego. You knew, knew, something was going to nudge it. And it wasn’t exactly a secret that the “Magnificent Seven” were doing all the heavy lifting. The rest of the index? Just… along for the ride. Which is always a bit suspect, don’t you think?

Hindsight, naturally, is 20/20. Turns out that little wobble we were feeling wasn’t just indigestion. It preceded a rather undignified tumble – a 20% correction linked to some… let’s call them “assertive” tariffs. Honestly, the whole thing felt performative. Like someone needed to prove a point, and the market was the unfortunate casualty.

We saw it before, you know. 2021. The pandemic bounce, fueled by enough stimulus money to make a small country jealous. The Nasdaq-100 went absolutely bananas. But even then, I was glancing sideways. The number of stocks actually participating in this rally was… diminishing. By Christmas, roughly half of them were just sort of… there. Like reluctant party guests.

And then, predictably, the music stopped. 2022. Inflation, the Fed finally noticing things, and a full-blown bear market. The Nasdaq-100 lost over 30%. It wasn’t exactly a surprise, was it? It was like watching a slow-motion car crash. You knew it was coming, you just couldn’t quite look away.

Which brings us to now. We had a little bounce after that “Liberation Day” low in April 2025, and everyone got all giddy again. More pushing, more optimism. But the number of stocks actually leading the charge peaked in the second quarter and has been… well, shrinking. Again. It’s a pattern, isn’t it? A rather irritating one.

Is another 20% correction looming? Honestly, it feels less like a question and more like a… inevitability. The market’s a bit like a terrible boyfriend. It keeps doing the same things, and you keep hoping it’ll change. Spoiler alert: it won’t.

What About This Time?

The same old story, really. In 2025, only three sectors bothered to outperform the S&P 500. Two of them? Technology and communication services. You know, the home of our beloved Magnificent Seven. And where do a lot of these stocks reside? You guessed it. The Nasdaq-100. It’s all so… predictable. Like a badly written play.

As of today, the index is down 6% from its all-time high. Technology is the worst-performing sector of the S&P 500. And let’s not even start on the crypto market. There’s a definite risk-off sentiment brewing. It’s the sort of thing that makes me want to hide under the duvet with a large glass of something strong. And maybe a spreadsheet. Because, you know, responsible adulting.

Don’t be surprised if the Nasdaq-100 ends up in bear market territory. The signs were all there. We just… chose to ignore them. Which, let’s be honest, is what we always do.

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2026-02-25 05:22