MP Materials: A Most Peculiar Speculation

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The shares of MP Materials, a company dealing in those curiously named ‘rare earths,’ experienced a most vigorous expansion in the past year. One gathers it surged, by October, to a point where even the most enthusiastic speculator might have paused for breath. The final tally for 2025, a gain of 223.8% according to the diligent bean-counters at S&P Global Market Intelligence, suggests a degree of irrational exuberance not witnessed since… well, since the last such episode. It has, predictably, continued to climb in the early months of 2026, adding a further 13% to its already inflated price.

It has become, it seems, a national champion, bolstered by the substantial, and one suspects rather arbitrary, hand of federal funding and a series of commercial arrangements that appear, on closer inspection, to border on the fantastical.

One anticipates another eventful year for the stock. Though, naturally, anticipating anything in the markets is a pastime for fools and those with a surplus of disposable income.

The Curious Case of MP Materials in 2025

The recent enthusiasm for rare earth stocks stems, as is so often the case, from a belated realization of strategic vulnerability. The Trump administration, in a fit of commendable, if belated, foresight, resolved to secure the supply chains of these critical minerals, reducing our dependence on imports. One can only wonder why this didn’t occur decades ago, but then, logic rarely governs matters of national security.

Rare earths, it appears, are essential for a disconcerting range of industries – electronics, semiconductors, defense, aerospace, robotics, and even renewables. The global supply, however, is dominated by China, from whom we currently import nearly 80% of our requirements. A rather precarious position, wouldn’t you agree?

In a move that startled the financial press in July 2025, the Department of Defense – or, as it was briefly, and rather dramatically, rebranded, the Department of War – acquired a 15% equity stake in MP Materials, becoming its largest shareholder. A gesture, one imagines, intended to convey both strength and a certain degree of desperation.

MP Materials owns and operates the Mountain Pass mine in California, the largest of its kind in the United States. A fact, one suspects, that carries more symbolic weight than actual economic significance.

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Under this public-private partnership – a phrase that invariably signals a generous transfer of wealth from the public to the private sector – MP Materials is constructing a rare earth magnet manufacturing facility, the ’10X facility,’ with an estimated capacity of 10,000 metric tons. In return, the Department of War has committed to purchasing all the magnets produced for the next ten years, at a floor price of $110 per kilogram. A most agreeable arrangement for MP Materials, naturally.

Furthermore, the Department of War has partnered with MP Materials to establish a joint venture in Saudi Arabia to develop a rare-earth refinery. One wonders if this venture will prove any more successful than its predecessors in that region.

In another landmark deal, MP Materials announced a $500 billion partnership with Apple to produce rare earth magnets from recycled materials for use in their devices. A sum so vast as to be almost incomprehensible. One suspects a degree of marketing hyperbole is involved.

A Most Dubious Investment?

While these deals have flowed in and the stock price has soared, the company has been spending heavily to expand its refining and magnet production capabilities. A perfectly sensible strategy, provided, of course, that the expansion is actually successful.

2026 should be a significant year for MP Materials as it begins commissioning its heavy rare earth separation facility at Mountain Pass. A crucial step towards its planned production of 10,000 metric tons of magnets. One hopes they have accounted for all the inevitable delays and cost overruns.

As MP Materials progresses from mining ores to manufacturing magnets and attempts to establish itself as a U.S. rare earth powerhouse, its stock could, conceivably, deliver substantial returns. Though, naturally, one should approach such speculation with a healthy dose of skepticism. After all, in the world of high finance, miracles are rare, and disappointments are commonplace.

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2026-02-06 16:22