Moderna’s Wild Ride: Patience Required for Bold Investors

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Now, I’ve seen my share of stocks that tumbled faster than a drunkard down a mineshaft, but Moderna’s recent performance deserves its own chapter in the annals of Wall Street foolishness. Dropping 74% faster than a hot potato in a church picnic? Why, that’s enough to make a grown speculator weep into his ticker tape. But let’s not bury this horse just yet—there might still be some race left in the old nag if you’ve got the patience of Job and the constitution of a Missouri mule.

Moderna rode the COVID vaccine wave like a carnival barker selling snake oil—except this tonic actually worked. Raked in $19 billion faster than a riverboat gambler on a hot streak. Then revenues shriveled up to $3.24 billion quicker than a puddle in Death Valley. Now they’re peddling shots for babies young enough to still think peek-a-boo is high philosophy. Noble work, no doubt, but unless every toddler in Christendom comes down with the sniffles simultaneously, that revenue gap won’t be bridged by diaper wearers alone.

The Great American Pipeline Dream

Ah, but here’s where our tale takes a hopeful turn—assuming you believe in fairy tales and biotech pipelines. Moderna’s got more irons in the fire than a blacksmith with the St. Vitus dance:

  • A flu vaccine so fancy it’s in Phase 3 trials, which means it’s got about as much chance as a snowball in July of making you rich anytime soon.
  • A flu/COVID combo shot that’s like serving whiskey and laudanum in the same glass—might cure you or kill you, but by gum it’s efficient.
  • Cancer treatments that sound plumb miraculous if you don’t mind waiting for Moses to come down from the mountain with the FDA approvals.

Their mRNA melanoma treatment’s in Phase 3 trials—which is Wall Street talk for “maybe in your grandchildren’s lifetime.” They’re recruiting for lung cancer studies faster than a riverboat captain shanghaiing drunkards. Bladder cancer, kidney cancer—why, pretty soon they’ll be promising to cure baldness and halitosis if the shareholders hold on long enough.

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Valuation: Or How to Lose Friends and Alienate Accountants

Trying to value Moderna today is like appraising a gold claim that won’t be dug up until the next ice age. No profits expected until 2027 at the earliest—about as reliable as a politician’s promise—with some starry-eyed optimists predicting $3.52 per share. That’d make the P/E ratio nine times future earnings, which sounds reasonable until you remember Betsy Ross was still stitching flags the last time Wall Street projections came true.

The cold hard truth? Moderna’s respiratory vaccines are fine and dandy, but oncology’s where the real money grows—some $900 billion by 2034 if the fortune tellers at BioSpace are to be believed. Course, by then we might all be living on Mars eating lab-grown steak, so take that with a grain of salt large enough to preserve a buffalo.

Here’s the rub: Moderna’s current price-to-sales ratio is 3.6 times estimated 2024 sales—about as enticing as a three-legged mule if you’re looking for quick returns. Their projected 2025 revenue is dwindling faster than a temperance parade in a brewery town. This stock’s pure potential wrapped in uncertainty, sold on hope and paid for with patience.

My advice? If you’ve got the stomach of a cactus and the patience of stone, buy low and plant your shares like an acorn. Might grow into an oak, might get eaten by squirrels. Either way, you’ll have quite the tale to tell at the next market crash—and ain’t that what investing’s really about? 🌵

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2025-07-26 11:13