Moderna: A Most Peculiar Speculation

by

It was, not so long ago, a veritable frenzy. Investors, bless their optimistic souls, descended upon the shares of Moderna (MRNA 1.46%) as if a particularly potent strain of spring fever had gripped the market. A vaccine, conjured forth in less than a year—a feat of scientific haste, one might say—and the coffers swelled accordingly. A rise of seven hundred percent, a figure that tickles the imagination, then a slight settling, as all things must. Eighteen billion, they say, in revenue for a single year—a sum large enough to purchase a small principality, or at least a rather impressive collection of samovars.

But alas, the fever breaks. The demand, naturally, waned. One cannot perpetually inoculate against a phantom, however diligently one attempts. Moderna, a company now adrift on a sea of possibilities, embarked upon cost-cutting measures—a sensible endeavor, though one rarely celebrated in polite society—and began to realign its pipeline. Seasonal vaccines, they proclaimed, and grand ambitions in oncology and rare diseases. A noble pursuit, to be sure, though one fraught with the usual bureaucratic entanglements and the capricious whims of fate.

And now, a new misfortune. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration, a body not known for its expeditious decision-making, has declined to review Moderna’s influenza vaccine application. mRNA-1010, they call it—a rather clinical designation for a potential savior against the annual sniffles. The stock, predictably, shuddered—a mere three percent dip, but a tremor nonetheless, felt most keenly by those who had placed their faith—and their rubles—in this most peculiar speculation.

So, we ask ourselves, is Moderna a stock to avoid, like a particularly insistent peddler, or a bad news buy, a chance to acquire a bargain amidst the prevailing gloom? Let us, with a sigh and a shrug, attempt to discern the truth.

Moderna’s Ups and Downs—A Most Unpredictable Journey

Before we plunge into the current disquiet, a brief recounting of the recent past is in order. Moderna burst onto the scene, propelled by the potency of its mRNA technology—a method of instructing the body to defend itself, a most ingenious concept, though one that sounds suspiciously like alchemy to the uninitiated. This technology, they claim, can be applied to a multitude of ailments, a claim that, if true, would render the apothecary obsolete.

Currently, they offer two coronavirus vaccines—Spikevax and mNEXSPIKE—and a vaccine against respiratory syncytial virus (RSV). They envision a portfolio of seasonal vaccines—a rather ambitious undertaking, one might say—and harbor grand designs for mRNA-1010, hoping to introduce it to the global market by 2027. A long wait, to be sure, but time, as they say, is a river that flows in only one direction.

However, not all endeavors have met with success. A recent attempt to develop a cytomegalovirus (CMV) vaccine—a potential solution to a long-standing medical need—failed in its final trial. A setback, certainly, but a mere pebble in the path of a determined traveler. They continue to pursue oncology candidates—a most noble quest—and explore treatments for rare diseases. They hope to fund these endeavors with the proceeds from their seasonal vaccines—a sensible plan, though one that relies on the fickle nature of public health.

Loading widget...

The Latest Bad News—A Matter of Procedure, or Something More Sinister?

Now, to the present predicament. The FDA, it seems, has taken exception to the design of the mRNA-1010 trial. They deem it “not adequate and well-controlled,” with a control arm that “does not reflect the best-available standard of care.” No mention of safety or efficacy concerns, mind you—merely a matter of procedure. One cannot help but wonder, however, if a small, sentient demon resides within the FDA’s bureaucratic machinery, delighting in the thwarting of progress.

Moderna, understandably, is perplexed. They claim that the FDA’s concerns were not previously communicated. A curious discrepancy, to be sure. Companies, after all, engage in lengthy discussions with regulators before submitting applications—a ritualistic dance of compliance and negotiation. Moderna submitted the study protocol in April—a gesture of goodwill, it seems, met with a rather chilly response.

They have requested a meeting with the FDA—a plea for clarification, a desperate attempt to salvage the situation. Any delay in the approval of mRNA-1010 will not immediately impact Moderna’s revenue—but a prolonged delay could significantly hinder their growth prospects. And it is worth noting that the prevailing political climate—with its penchant for cutting research funding and tightening approval standards—is not particularly conducive to innovation.

Is Moderna a Buy? A Gamble, Perhaps, But One Worth Considering

So, we return to our initial question: Is Moderna a stock to avoid, like a poorly maintained samovar, or a bad news buy, a chance to acquire a bargain amidst the prevailing gloom? It is clear that Moderna faces headwinds in the near term—this setback, coupled with the unfavorable regulatory environment, presents a formidable challenge.

But if we adopt a long-term perspective, the picture brightens considerably. Moderna possesses a promising pipeline based on a proven technology. If they can bring even a few of these products to market by the end of the decade, they could embark on a new era of growth. And over time, their portfolio could expand, their revenue could multiply, and their impact on public health could be profound.

The risks, of course, remain. But for investors who are willing to tolerate a bit of turbulence, Moderna is not a stock to avoid. Instead, now, while the stock is down, is a good time to buy and hold—a gamble, perhaps, but one that may pay off handsomely in the long run. After all, even the most peculiar speculations occasionally bear fruit.

Read More

2026-02-12 19:13