Moderna: A Most Peculiar Case of Post-Pandemic Existence

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Moderna (MRNA +0.34%)—a name that, until relatively recently, most people would have associated with vaguely futuristic furniture or perhaps a particularly obscure type of cheese—found itself, quite unexpectedly, at the forefront of global healthcare. This occurred due to a rather ingenious application of mRNA technology, which, if you think about it, is essentially teaching your body to build tiny, microscopic robots to fight off disease. (The robots are, thankfully, biodegradable. Imagine the landfill situation otherwise.) The financial implications of this, as one might expect, were… substantial.

A Momentary Spike in the Fabric of Reality

The arrival of the COVID-19 pandemic was, let’s be honest, a bit of a shock to everyone. A global event of that magnitude tends to disrupt things. (Like, for example, the carefully calibrated supply chains for artisanal toast.) Moderna, with its aforementioned microscopic robot technology, managed to produce a vaccine in record time. The result? A revenue jump from roughly $60 million to over $19 billion in 2023. This is, statistically speaking, a rather large number. It’s the kind of number that makes accountants slightly dizzy and venture capitalists exceptionally cheerful.

This sudden influx of capital allowed Moderna to accumulate a considerable cash hoard, swelling from $1.1 billion to over $10 billion. (Which, if stacked into reasonably sized bills, would reach approximately to the lower stratosphere. Don’t try this at home.) This money was, naturally, intended for the development of new products, a noble endeavor. The problem, as is so often the case, lies in the execution. Or, more precisely, in the distinct lack of execution. COVID-related revenue is now declining, down to $1.9 billion, and the company is, shall we say, enthusiastically burning through its savings, now at roughly $5.8 billion. Still a lot of money, admittedly, but so far, the return on investment is… elusive. One might even say, suspiciously so.

Sparks, But No Sustained Combustion

Moderna hasn’t been entirely frivolous with its funds. It has an influenza vaccine currently under review by the Food and Drug Administration. The FDA’s initial reluctance to examine it was, to put it mildly, perplexing. (One imagines a bureaucratic equivalent of a particularly stubborn cat refusing to acknowledge a perfectly good cardboard box.) Thankfully, they’ve had a change of heart, and are now considering it with sufficient lead time for potential approval before the next flu season. This is progress, of a sort.

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The company is also collaborating with pharmaceutical giant Merck on a melanoma therapy. Early trial results are encouraging, but the therapy remains in the testing phase. The concept of personalized cancer care—tailoring treatments to an individual’s unique genetic makeup—is a potentially revolutionary opportunity. However, it could be quite some time before it reaches the market. (The universe, as a rule, enjoys a good delay.)

The Question of What Comes Next

The primary reason for caution regarding Moderna is that, following its pandemic-induced success, it hasn’t yet launched a major new product. Until it does, its spending will likely remain high, and its revenue isn’t expected to grow significantly. Conservative investors would be well-advised to wait until the company actually gets a product over the finish line before considering an investment. (The finish line, naturally, being a purely metaphorical construct. There are no actual lines involved.) The situation, in essence, is a bit like building a magnificent rocket ship, launching it into space, and then discovering you’ve forgotten to pack any snacks.

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2026-02-23 17:02