Memory chips don’t lie. They don’t weep or whisper. They just sit there, cold and calculating, until the market decides their worth. Micron Technology (MU) danced on a knife’s edge Wednesday-up 5.2%, down to 3.5% by closing bell. The dance wasn’t random. It was choreographed by two ghosts: a Citigroup analyst’s bulletproof vest of optimism and Oracle’s (ORCL) $455 billion RPO, a number so big it could sink a battleship.
The analyst note? A relic from a bygone era when memory was a commodity, not a weapon. Citi said supply would lag demand by 1.8 percentage points through 2026. NAND flash, that old fat cat, would even tighten up. Oracle, meanwhile, spilled its secrets like a drunk at a board meeting: cloud revenue would balloon to $144 billion by 2030. Numbers don’t lie. They just get dressed up in jargon.
Undersupply of memory chips to continue
Citi’s note was a love letter written in spreadsheets. DRAM’s demand would grow faster than supply. NAND, that old dog, would finally catch up. The analysts didn’t just predict-they declared. They had the confidence of a man who’d just bought a one-way ticket to 2030.
Oracle’s RPO number? A bombshell in a trench coat. Larry Ellison, that old fox, called AI inferencing the next frontier. “Bigger than training,” he said, as if he hadn’t already claimed the moon. But the real kicker? Oracle’s data hoard-$455 billion in private enterprise gold. That’s not just leverage. That’s a ransom.
The Citi note and Oracle’s call were two halves of the same ledger. AI isn’t just a buzzword. It’s a beast. It eats up HBM for training, then turns to DRAM and NAND at the edge. The analysts put it like this: “AI shifting from training to inferencing will drive demand for memory like a junkie chasing a fix.” A poetic understatement.
“AI inferencing, that will change everything.”
Ellison’s voice was smooth as a well-aged whiskey. He didn’t just talk about the future. He owned it. Oracle’s not just a player. It’s the table, the cards, and the dealer.
Micron is in a good spot
Micron’s story is a redemption arc. Ten years ago, it was a footnote in a cyclical industry. Now? It’s got the tech to match the big boys. The market’s a fickle lover, but AI? That’s a long-term commitment. As long as the demand keeps growing, Micron’s pricing power will be a slow burn, not a flash fire.
The memory business is a graveyard of overambitious startups and undercapitalized players. But Micron? It’s playing chess while everyone else is arguing over checkers. The analysts see it. Oracle sees it. And the market? It’s starting to see it too.
Just don’t expect a happy ending. This is business. It’s a room full of sharks, and the blood’s still fresh.
🕵️♂️
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2025-09-11 01:02